# Spencer Kimball: The Emerson polling director argued the CNN polls showing Harris up five in Michigan and Wisconsin are outliers, and said Pennsylvania and Georgia look like they lean to Trump, North Carolina leans Trump by about a point or two, Wisconsin should go to Trump given historic underrepresentation of his vote, and Nevada still leans to Harris.

**Claimed:** Oct 31, 2024
**Pundit:** Spencer Kimball — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/spencer-kimball
**Outlet:** The Megyn Kelly Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-megyn-kelly-show
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/101/arttrk.com/p/24FDE/claritaspod.com/measure/sxm.simplecastaudio.com/853ccd10-364f-4b0b-831e-c2bed24d85e7/episodes/9e7000da-07e6-41f1-8285-04f44efbcab5/audio/128/default.mp3?aid=rss_feed&awCollectionId=853ccd10-364f-4b0b-831e-c2bed24d85e7&awEpisodeId=9e7000da-07e6-41f1-8285-04f44efbcab5&feed=RV1USAfC

5 checkable claims — 4 race winners and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 5 have settled, averaging 77.6 out of 100, against 16.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> So to me, anything in Wisconsin that's tied, the conventional wisdom is that Trump will will take it because we're underrepresenting.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Now the race is much tighter. It's about a half a point. I still think it leans towards Harris, but Trump has made up a lot of ground... that's a state where I think the Democrats can still hold it.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **So to me, anything in Wisconsin that's tied, the conventional wisdom is that Trump will will take it because we're underrepresenting.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **It's probably leaning to Trump by about one to two points, but that's gonna be a lot to overcome considering the situation.**
  - Kind: Race Margins
  - Verdict: scored 87.9 out of 100, against 81.4 for a naive guess
- **Maybe it falls in between those two numbers, but it seems to be leaning towards Trump at this time.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **it looks like Pennsylvania should go towards Trump, and that would suggest he would have some success on election night... that's why we see that, you know, Pennsylvania as a toss-up, slightly leaning towards Trump**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess

## More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100)
- Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1dff06ac-6afd-4cba-8d04-66989cafbd39 (scored 100)
- Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100)
- Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0)
- Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 0)
- Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=spencer-kimball