# Todd McShay: McShay's mock draft 4.0 has Fernando Mendoza and David Bailey going 1-2 to the Raiders and Jets, the Saints trading up to No. 3 for Arvell Reese, the Titans taking Jeremiah Love at 4, the Giants taking Francis Mauigoa at 5 (though he'd now switch to Sonny Styles), the Cowboys trading up to 6, the Jets trading up to 7 for Carnell Tate, and Arizona trading up to 30 for Ty Simpson. He also predicts seven offensive tackles go in the first round and that Love, Styles, Downs and Reese all go in the top seven. **Claimed:** Apr 15, 2026 **Pundit:** Todd McShay — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/todd-mcshay **Outlet:** The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-rich-eisen-show-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.megaphone.fm/ESP8827087165.mp3?updated=1776277489 19 checkable claims — 14 mock draft picks, 4 team draft slot calls and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 19 players and teams, each linked to their own record. 15 of 19 have settled so far, averaging 90.6 out of 100, against 47.6 for a naive guess at the same calls. Of the 4 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands above the room on 1 and below it on 3. > I think they're all gonna go there's a really good chance they all go in the top seven. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **K.C. Concepcion to be 4th receiver off the board** - Kind: Position Order Calls · About: K.C. Concepcion - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 13.82 for a naive guess - **Sonny Styles to be picked “top seven” (picks 1–7)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Sonny Styles - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Sonny Styles to be picked at number 6** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Sonny Styles, Dallas Cowboys - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **David Bailey to be picked at number 2** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: David Bailey, New York Jets - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 4** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Jeremiyah Love, Tennessee Titans - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Mansoor Delane to be picked at number 8** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Mansoor Delane - Verdict: scored 91.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Arvell Reese to be picked “top seven” (picks 1–7)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Arvell Reese - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Arvell Reese, New Orleans Saints - Verdict: scored 91.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Carnell Tate to be picked at number 7** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Carnell Tate, New York Jets - Verdict: scored 87.81 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Caleb Downs to be picked “top seven” (picks 1–7)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Caleb Downs - Verdict: scored 84.09 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Jeremiyah Love to be picked “top seven” (picks 1–7)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Jeremiyah Love - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Ty Simpson to be picked at number 30** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Ty Simpson, Arizona Cardinals - Verdict: scored 47.88 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 5** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Francis Mauigoa, New York Giants - Verdict: scored 80.52 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Fernando Mendoza, Las Vegas Raiders - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Olaivavega Ioane to be picked “not gonna go in the top 10” (picks 1–10)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Olaivavega Ioane - Verdict: scored 84.09 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **New Orleans Saints to pick at number 3** - Kind: Team Draft Slot Calls · About: New Orleans Saints - Verdict: not settled yet - **New York Jets to pick at number 7** - Kind: Team Draft Slot Calls · About: New York Jets - Verdict: not settled yet - **Dallas Cowboys to pick at number 6** - Kind: Team Draft Slot Calls · About: Dallas Cowboys - Verdict: not settled yet - **Arizona Cardinals to pick at number 30** - Kind: Team Draft Slot Calls · About: Arizona Cardinals - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - K.C. Concepcion — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/k-c-concepcion - Sonny Styles — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/sonny-styles - Dallas Cowboys — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/cowboys - David Bailey — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/david-bailey - New York Jets — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/jets - Jeremiyah Love — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/jeremiyah-love - Tennessee Titans — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/titans - Mansoor Delane — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/mansoor-delane - Arvell Reese — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/arvell-reese - New Orleans Saints — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/saints - Carnell Tate — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/carnell-tate - Caleb Downs — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/caleb-downs - Ty Simpson — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/ty-simpson - Arizona Cardinals — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/cardinals - Francis Mauigoa — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/francis-mauigoa - New York Giants — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/giants - Fernando Mendoza — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/fernando-mendoza - Las Vegas Raiders — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/raiders - Olaivavega Ioane — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/olaivavega-ioane ## What others said about the same people - Chris Simms on New Orleans Saints: Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/662b7ba3-1bf6-4ad0-9f93-9f2ab83143fd (scored 47.62) - Connor Rogers on New York Giants: Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/83d1e88b-95a0-45ba-83d3-f86297170c6c (scored 100) - Steven Ruiz on Las Vegas Raiders: Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a30ff469-4972-4c48-855b-ba984e4de9d0 (scored 100) - Nate Tice on Las Vegas Raiders: Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b8378e16-ea5c-4107-a883-28aaf0e71134 (scored 100) - Nate Tice on Dallas Cowboys: Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b6211c80-3d1c-46b8-8a0c-151fc0ba92de (scored 100) - John Middlekauff on Tennessee Titans: Middlekauff expects blowout wins for Seattle over Washington and Kansas City over Miami in Week 3, picks Cincinnati to beat Pittsburgh in the AFC North matchup, and takes Tennessee over the Giants if Jameis Winston is taking snaps. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8115d255-82e3-442e-aeef-c3eaa3587603 (scored 0) ## More mock draft picks The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Ryan Wilson on J.J. McCarthy: Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/44cc5859-8b2b-4fbf-b5c0-62c635f2e357 (scored 36.92) - Nick Shook on Max Iheanachor: Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7d4209aa-2e2d-47a2-b6e5-791d16d209cb (scored 87.81) - Daniel Jeremiah on Keyron Crawford: In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f60c916c-1b5f-4252-8733-1770c7809577 (scored 80.52) - Jeff Cavanaugh on Lorenzo Styles: Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f1f48cc1-f9d5-44ca-b130-2c6447b49bc6 (scored 0.51) - Steve Mensch on Caleb Lomu: Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f65851f3-1c53-4ae9-80ef-875db5ce2a3f (scored 62.09) - Pat Fitzmaurice on Makai Lemon: Making a third of the mock's picks, he gave Reuben Bain to Arizona at 3, Francis Mauinoa to Cleveland at 6, Jeremiah Love to Kansas City at 9, Mansoor Delane to Dallas at 12, Cassius Howell to Tampa Bay at 15, Avieon Terrell to Minnesota at 18, Makai Lemon to Pittsburgh at 21, KC Concepcion to Cleveland at 24, Kadyn Proctor to San Francisco at 27 and TJ Parker to New England at 30. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a61a436c-f178-40ce-aedd-fa92cbc80c82 (scored 95.76) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=todd-mcshay