# Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. **Claimed:** Nov 5, 2024 **Pundit:** Sam Wang — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/sam-wang **Outlet:** Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/princeton-election-consortium-sam-wang **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://election.princeton.edu/articles/geeks-guide-to-the-election-2024/ 9 checkable claims — 8 race winners and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. All 9 have settled, averaging 76.4 out of 100, against 27.8 for a naive guess at the same calls. > Things are headed toward Trump, but it will take a day or two to play out. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Trump will win Iowa by 12 points.** - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 87.9 out of 100, against 49.9 for a naive guess - **it appears that so far Democrats might gain 5 seats (NE-2, NY-4, NY-19, NY-22, VA-2)** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **it appears that so far Democrats might gain 5 seats (NE-2, NY-4, NY-19, NY-22, VA-2)** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **it appears that so far Democrats might gain 5 seats (NE-2, NY-4, NY-19, NY-22, VA-2)** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **it appears that so far Democrats might gain 5 seats (NE-2, NY-4, NY-19, NY-22, VA-2)** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **it appears that so far Democrats might gain 5 seats (NE-2, NY-4, NY-19, NY-22, VA-2)** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Republicans might gain 2 seats (PA-7 and PA-8)** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Republicans might gain 2 seats (PA-7 and PA-8)** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **The Presidential race still depends on Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. Things are headed toward Trump, but it will take a day or two to play out.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100) - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1dff06ac-6afd-4cba-8d04-66989cafbd39 (scored 100) - Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100) - Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0) - Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100) - Henry Olsen: Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/95ac712b-4c9a-4c59-ad58-88552ecace4c (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=sam-wang