# Chuck Todd: Todd ranks the ten governorships most likely to flip, with Iowa first and Florida tenth, and calls Iowa a lean Democratic flip and Kansas a lean Republican flip. They also see Democrats favored for governor in Alaska, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona, thinks the Democrat wins the Kansas Senate race, believes the Georgia Republican nominee is the better bet, and expects South Carolina's 1st and Virginia's 5th House districts to stay Republican. **Claimed:** Oct 14, 2026 **Pundit:** Chuck Todd — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/chuck-todd **Outlet:** The Chuck ToddCast — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-chuck-toddcast **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/claritaspod.com/measure/pscrb.fm/rss/p/pscrb.fm/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/p57137/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/c749d540-b5b7-42b1-a855-b33100f844fa/fce8f0d0-6dee-407b-a9c6-b4e300101667/audio.mp3?in_playlist=8e017e60-9c2d-418d-97bb-b33100f84504 11 checkable claims — 10 race winners and 1 seats most likely to flip — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. 8 of 11 have settled so far, averaging 75 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I think South Carolina one still probably stays Republican. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - “I'm bullish on Kansas Senate because I'm bearish on Kansas Gov for Democrats... I think Marshall's unlikable enough and Hamilton's likable enough to be the comfortable lone Democrat.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “I think the Republican nominee, Rick Jackson, has got enough distance from Trump and an enormous amount of money himself that has made him a better bet... I think had literally Republicans ended up with any other nominee than him, I think Keisha Lance Bottoms would be the favorite.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “I think both Iowa and Kansas, you would say, distinctly leans to the party to flip, leaning Democratic on the Iowa side, leaning Republican on the Kansas side.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “Now, there's two states not on my list. Arizona and Michigan... And while Turning Point is throwing a bunch of money into Andy Biggs in Arizona, the word is out that he's a MAGA guy. And MAGA people don't win statewide in Arizona these days.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “I think South Carolina one still probably stays Republican.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “I think Virginia five probably stays Republican.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “I think in a battleground state in this environment, advantage Democrats, whether it's Michigan governor, whether it's Wisconsin governor” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “I think in a battleground state in this environment, advantage Democrats, whether it's Michigan governor, whether it's Wisconsin governor... I don't think Tom Tiffany is unique enough to carve out his own identity to overcome what I think is just an environment that is not overcomable for Republicans right now in the Midwest.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “Number four on the list is Alaska, the right choice voting. It does appear that the Democrats have the upper hand here.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - “So I'm ranking the 10 governorships that I think is in order of most likely to flip, the least likely to flip... number one, most likely to flip, Iowa... Number two, Kansas... Number three on my list is Ohio... Number four on the list is Alaska... And number five on my list is Texas... Six, I have Georgia... Number seven on my list is Nevada... Oregon... Number nine on my list is Wisconsin... And then coming in at 10 is Florida.” - Kind: Seats Most Likely to Flip - Verdict: not settled yet - “I do think Kansas is going to be quite close, but I think advantage R... leaning Republican on the Kansas side.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: On Election Day, Erickson forecasts that Republicans will lose their House majority while holding the Senate, and picks Rick Jackson to beat Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia's governor race. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8ed3ad25-c945-43a6-8198-74886bbd2522 (scored 0) - Carl Cannon: Cannon picked Democrats to win Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa and Kansas while Republicans hold South Carolina and Nebraska, took Michelle Tafoya as an upset special in Minnesota, and said Democrats would gain more than 30 House seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/635f269d-3c71-4998-9a1f-24cab744db76 (scored 100) - Andrew Walworth: Walworth was the most bullish on Republicans, picking Mike Rogers in Michigan and GOP holds in Alaska, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Iowa while giving Democrats Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Minnesota, leaving a 50-50 Senate with Republicans in control. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1691eed0-1c56-418d-be99-1b448f0d3679 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan picked Democrats to win Michigan, Alaska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina while Republicans hold Ohio, South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa and Maine, giving Democrats a net gain of four and a 51-49 Senate majority, plus a House gain of about 26 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b5c1c97f-66d7-4b7d-b6d5-085f46495a06 (scored 0) - Spencer Kimball: Kimball said Susan Collins would hold their Maine Senate seat despite most polls showing them behind, and projected Democrats winning the House with roughly 235-240 seats, a gain of more than 20; they called the Senate a toss-up and made no call there. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/23d6b8f8-ab6a-4dab-bdcb-5b515223983c (scored 0) - Buck Sexton: Buck Sexton said Florida's "red wall" would hold, expressing confidence that Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody would win their statewide races there, and they called Marsha Blackburn's Tennessee governor bid essentially locked up. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/07a8919e-a9b3-4d37-b164-a40a2a42c548 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=chuck-todd