# Lance Zierlein: Zierlein says the Texans should target a guard at pick 28 (likely after trading back), naming the Texas A&M guard and Oregon guard as targets, says the Penn State guard will be gone by then, and that Spencer Fano won't be available at 28 but shouldn't be drafted as a tackle inside the top 10. They also say Caleb Lomu will be drafted before 28 and that in their most recent mock they gave the Texans Lomu, and did not have Ty Simpson in the first round.

**Claimed:** Mar 9, 2026
**Pundit:** Lance Zierlein — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/lance-zierlein
**Outlet:** John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/john-and-lance-espn-houston-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/audioboom.com/posts/8871484.mp3?modified=1773069572&sid=4936948&source=rss

6 checkable claims — 6 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

4 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 56 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> So if he were available at 28, I would a 100% take him. And I'm just gonna figure it out because I know he's a good player. I don't think he'll be there.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Spencer Fano to be picked “not inside the top 10 picks” (picks 1–10)**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Spencer Fano
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Caleb Tiernan to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Caleb Tiernan
  - Verdict: scored 23.94 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Caleb Lomu to be picked at number 28**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Caleb Lomu, Houston Texans
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Kade Casey to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Kade Casey
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Monroe Freeling to be picked “way overdrafted”**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Monroe Freeling
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **Caleb Lomu to be picked “drafted before pick 28”**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Caleb Lomu
  - Verdict: not settled yet

## Who this take is about

- Spencer Fano — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/spencer-fano
- Caleb Tiernan — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/caleb-tiernan
- Caleb Lomu — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/caleb-lomu
- Houston Texans — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/texans
- Kade Casey — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/kade-casey
- Monroe Freeling — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/monroe-freeling

## What others said about the same people

- Bobby Skinner on Stefon Diggs: Skinner predicted Daniel Jones signs with and wins the starting job in Indianapolis, Milton Williams to New England, Lavonte David back to Tampa, Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams to the Giants, DJ Reid to Arizona, Hassan Reddick to Washington and Justin Fields staying in Pittsburgh, plus alternates they had listed. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6bc51663-60f7-4897-b5dc-40e284f869a2 (scored 0)
- Pete Prisco on Houston Texans: Prisco gives score predictions for every Week 9 NFL game, picking the Bengals to rout the Falcons in Madrid, the Cowboys to rebound at Indianapolis, and the Jaguars to win in Baltimore without Lamar Jackson. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dc43909b-bc7f-47aa-b208-5cf7c95844bc (scored 54.76)
- Jared Koch on Houston Texans: Koch predicts the Texans will beat the winless Chargers on the road in Week 9 by at least 10 points, with Houston's defense forcing a couple of turnovers to set up a multiple-score win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e2861ce9-d1de-4f34-b001-83e64c3f5770 (scored 100)
- Chris Simms on Houston Texans: Simms gave a predicted final score for every Week 9 game, picking the Bengals, Chiefs, Broncos, Lions, Giants, Rams, Cowboys, Saints, 49ers, Patriots, Seahawks, Texans, Bears and Bills, and also said they wouldn't be shocked to see Jacksonville reach the AFC Championship Game. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/17eb747a-90b1-472f-bb6d-e71c0c69133a (scored 80.95)
- Connor Rogers on Houston Texans: Rogers picked straight-up winners in every Week 9 game, agreeing with Simms on all of them, and gave a 24-20 Bills score over the Vikings on Monday night. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/11646f69-18dd-4831-a7de-e4115ded875c (scored 100)
- Nick Wright on Houston Texans: Wright made several outright game calls for Week 9 alongside their spread picks: Kansas City beating the Jets 31-20, Detroit winning at Miami, New England edging Green Bay by a field goal or so, Carolina winning outright over Denver, and Houston blowing out the Chargers 27-12. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/14c1f8dd-d8ff-498f-b705-4b468ff964f8 (scored 83.33)

## More mock draft picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Chris Simms on Malachi Corley: Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c0fd4647-2de8-4a5f-bac2-950fed303ee9 (scored 11.46)
- Todd McShay on Keelon Russell: While breaking down LSU's offense, McShay called receiver Jackson Harris a top-50 NFL draft prospect, and later said LSU's Sam Levitt and Alabama's Keelan Russell are potential top-10 picks in a future draft. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/15d40546-2ab9-4ab8-b5bd-ed0ef7f26ae5 (scored 0)
- Philip Hughes on Kyle Kennard: Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/605a686a-b5f1-4611-82b4-961abf8de93e (scored 33.86)
- Blaine Grisak on Brian Thomas Jr.: Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/627bcf5d-9f1d-4a34-a1b7-53b8f0aebc40 (scored 84.09)
- Charlie Campbell on Xavier Williams: Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2dd4bf46-e5eb-4dff-8500-95d9fdbd2986 (scored 0)
- Walt on Fernando Mendoza: In a running series of coach/GM hiring and firing grades, Walt projects Fernando Mendoza as the No. 1 overall pick of the Raiders in the 2026 draft and has LSU's Garrett Nussmeier going No. 2 overall in their 2026 mock draft. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/29bb2d31-fbe3-40db-b378-be5ba5d990b0 (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
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