# Nathan Gonzales: Running through Inside Elections' latest ratings changes, they moved the Montana Senate race to Tilt Republican for Tim Sheehy and announced a batch of House ratings favoring one side in Maine's 2nd, Texas' 15th, Arizona's 2nd, Iowa's 1st, New Hampshire's 1st and 2nd, Pennsylvania's 10th and Wisconsin's 3rd. They also kept Ryan Zinke rated with the advantage in Montana's 1st and Connecticut's 5th at Lean Democratic. **Claimed:** Sep 19, 2024 **Pundit:** Nathan Gonzales — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nathan-gonzales **Outlet:** The Inside Elections Podcast — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-inside-elections-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://podcasts.captivate.fm/media/b9835765-b06b-403f-9f4a-5c69ed6d7148/ie031-converted.mp3 11 checkable claims — 11 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 11 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 90.9 for a naive guess at the same calls. > the big change we made in the senate was the Montana senate race, moving it from toss-up to tilting Republican, in favor of Republican Tim Sheehy *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - “Pennsylvania's 10th District, where Democrats are are targeting significantly from lean Republican to tilt Republican” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “the big change we made in the senate was the Montana senate race, moving it from toss-up to tilting Republican, in favor of Republican Tim Sheehy” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “We have the race rated as lean Democratic.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “New Hampshire's 1st District, lean Democratic to likely Democratic” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “We still have Zinke, rated with the advantage in the race, but it's it shows that it's close.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “Maine's second district, which is Democrat Jared Golden, we moved it from lean Democratic to tilt Democratic.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “Iowa's 1st District from lean Republican to tilt Republican” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “In Texas 15th District, we moved from lean Republican to likely Republican.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “New Hampshire's 2nd District, likely Democratic to solid Democratic” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “Arizona's 2nd District from solid Republican to likely Republican” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “Wisconsin's 3rd, which is Republican congressman Derek Van Orden, likely Republican to lean Republican” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: On Election Day, Erickson forecasts that Republicans will lose their House majority while holding the Senate, and picks Rick Jackson to beat Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia's governor race. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8ed3ad25-c945-43a6-8198-74886bbd2522 (scored 0) - Carl Cannon: Cannon picked Democrats to win Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa and Kansas while Republicans hold South Carolina and Nebraska, took Michelle Tafoya as an upset special in Minnesota, and said Democrats would gain more than 30 House seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/635f269d-3c71-4998-9a1f-24cab744db76 (scored 100) - Andrew Walworth: Walworth was the most bullish on Republicans, picking Mike Rogers in Michigan and GOP holds in Alaska, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Iowa while giving Democrats Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Minnesota, leaving a 50-50 Senate with Republicans in control. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1691eed0-1c56-418d-be99-1b448f0d3679 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan picked Democrats to win Michigan, Alaska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina while Republicans hold Ohio, South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa and Maine, giving Democrats a net gain of four and a 51-49 Senate majority, plus a House gain of about 26 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b5c1c97f-66d7-4b7d-b6d5-085f46495a06 (scored 0) - Spencer Kimball: Kimball said Susan Collins would hold their Maine Senate seat despite most polls showing them behind, and projected Democrats winning the House with roughly 235-240 seats, a gain of more than 20; they called the Senate a toss-up and made no call there. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/23d6b8f8-ab6a-4dab-bdcb-5b515223983c (scored 0) - Buck Sexton: Buck Sexton said Florida's "red wall" would hold, expressing confidence that Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody would win their statewide races there, and they called Marsha Blackburn's Tennessee governor bid essentially locked up. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/07a8919e-a9b3-4d37-b164-a40a2a42c548 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=nathan-gonzales