# Ronna Romney McDaniel: The former RNC chair predicted Republican Mike Rogers wins Michigan's Senate race, that Democrats take the House, and that Republicans hold the Senate because independents in the contested red states lean Republican. **Claimed:** Oct 25, 2026 **Pundit:** Ronna Romney McDaniel — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/ronna-romney-mcdaniel **Outlet:** State of the Union (CNN) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/state-of-the-union-cnn **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/swap.fm/track/2nzGkisFXQswLYT5s325/traffic.megaphone.fm/WMHY8852982681.mp3 3 checkable claims — 2 control of congress and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 3 have settled, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I think it looks like the house is is probably gonna go to Democrats. That's just what I'm seeing, in your external polls. I think Republicans keep the senate. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - “I think Republicans keep the senate. I think where they're they're fighting in these red states, in those states, independents lean Republican, and I think Republicans keep the senate.” - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “I think it looks like the house is is probably gonna go to Democrats. That's just what I'm seeing, in your external polls.” - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “Listen. I think Mike Rogers is gonna win this race. That's how I feel.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## More control of congress The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: On Election Day, Erickson forecasts that Republicans will lose their House majority while holding the Senate, and picks Rick Jackson to beat Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia's governor race. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8ed3ad25-c945-43a6-8198-74886bbd2522 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan picked Democrats to win Michigan, Alaska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina while Republicans hold Ohio, South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa and Maine, giving Democrats a net gain of four and a 51-49 Senate majority, plus a House gain of about 26 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b5c1c97f-66d7-4b7d-b6d5-085f46495a06 (scored 100) - Andrew Walworth: Walworth was the most bullish on Republicans, picking Mike Rogers in Michigan and GOP holds in Alaska, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Iowa while giving Democrats Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Minnesota, leaving a 50-50 Senate with Republicans in control. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1691eed0-1c56-418d-be99-1b448f0d3679 (scored 0) - Isaac Saul: Saul says Democrats have the House sewn up heading into election night, and that Democrats have good odds of winning the Senate races in Maine and Michigan. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f27d4f5b-e1cc-44b3-8f0b-b9fbd7c422cb (scored 100) - Isaac Saul: Saul asserts that Democrats have the House sewn up, and says Democrats appear to be running away with the statewide races in Georgia, North Carolina and New Hampshire while having good odds in Maine and Michigan. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3424d5ea-fb93-4738-8b03-bd5dd4f4d5b7 (scored 100) - Erick-Woods Erickson: Erickson expects a bad night for Republicans: they lose the Senate seats in North Carolina and Texas but hold the rest of the contested seats — Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Mississippi, South Carolina and Ohio — and keep Senate control, possibly even flipping Michigan. They believe the House is lost, with the GOP shedding roughly 25 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/351bb670-9f0b-453f-b74c-f93b044bd257 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=ronna-romney-mcdaniel