# Mark Halperin: Halperin forecast that Republicans would end up with a Senate majority in the low-to-mid 50s, saying many races could still break their way.

**Claimed:** Oct 23, 2024
**Pundit:** Mark Halperin — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mark-halperin
**Outlet:** The Megyn Kelly Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-megyn-kelly-show
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/101/arttrk.com/p/24FDE/claritaspod.com/measure/sxm.simplecastaudio.com/853ccd10-364f-4b0b-831e-c2bed24d85e7/episodes/89e60a2d-b19c-44a9-9230-6e42953fb1f3/audio/128/default.mp3?aid=rss_feed&awCollectionId=853ccd10-364f-4b0b-831e-c2bed24d85e7&awEpisodeId=89e60a2d-b19c-44a9-9230-6e42953fb1f3&feed=RV1USAfC

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> I think Republicans will be anywhere from 52 to 56 seats at this point.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Well well, I mean, I think Republicans will be anywhere from 52 to 56 seats at this point.**
  - Kind: Seat Counts
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess

## More seat counts

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Sam Wang: Combining generic ballot polling with special election results, Wang gives Democrats roughly an 8-in-9 chance of winning the national House vote and taking the House majority, and projects a seat split of about 224 Democrats to 211 Republicans in a very closely divided chamber. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b4bf6d49-8e25-46a3-92f0-ea5d697121ef (scored 55)
- Erick-Woods Erickson: He predicted Republicans would gain at least two Senate seats and take control of the chamber, and that the GOP would hold the House with its majority growing to roughly 225 or 230 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/908b2e75-8d71-4514-8d1d-948e8b3190a3 (scored 75)
- Lakshya Jain: Split Ticket's final 2024 forecast calls the presidency a tossup with Harris the narrowest favorite at 53% and exactly 270 electoral votes, carried by Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania; it gives Republicans a 73% chance of taking the Senate at 52-48 while Democrats have a 53% chance of a 219-216 House majority, and it rates dozens of individual Senate, House and governor races. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5a57d1ed-c7db-49ba-b385-900b5d93d6c5 (scored 80)
- Daniel Horowitz: Horowitz said his House map came out at 219-216 for Republicans, with the GOP losing nine seats and flipping six. On the presidential side he was bullish on Trump in Arizona and Nevada and expected a narrow Trump win in Georgia of about a point and a half; on the Senate he had Republicans taking Montana but not Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c587c5d9-5cd7-4f69-b12f-f9a0c678a913 (scored 95)
- Steve Deace: Deace laid out a final presidential map of 297-241 for Trump, with the Rust Belt splitting: Pennsylvania going Republican while Michigan stays Democratic, plus Trump wins in Arizona and Nevada. On the Senate he predicted Republicans finish with 54 seats, including McCormick winning Pennsylvania and Moreno unseating Sherrod Brown in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/227fccef-c6ae-4b9b-a30d-4eb9c2431b39 (scored 80)
- Isaac Saul: Recapping and restating his final 2024 call, Saul predicts Trump wins the presidency while Harris carries Pennsylvania, with Democrats taking the House and Republicans ending up with 53 Senate seats. He insists the race is a coin flip but still lands on Trump. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/fae76e06-7347-4e3d-b978-448ce89230c0 (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
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