# Steve Deace: On the eve of the election he said flatly that Trump would win the presidency, estimated a three-to-six-point Trump victory in Georgia based on early-voting data, and dismissed any chance of West Virginia going Democratic. **Claimed:** Nov 4, 2024 **Pundit:** Steve Deace — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/steve-deace **Outlet:** Steve Deace Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/steve-deace-show **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pfx.vpixl.com/4V6da/arttrk.com/p/BLZM1/verifi.podscribe.com/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/285/pscrb.fm/rss/p/prfx.byspotify.com/e/claritaspod.com/measure/traffic.megaphone.fm/BMDC8847691421.mp3?updated=1730751503 3 checkable claims — 2 race winners and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. All 3 have settled, averaging 97.3 out of 100, against 58.6 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I do think Trump is going to win. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **I could give you all the the data and trends why I believe we're gonna win tomorrow. I do think Trump is going to win. I think we're gonna win tomorrow.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **to me, that that still looks like a three to five six point victory in Georgia to me. ... I don't know how she's gonna win Georgia.** - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 91.9 out of 100, against 75.8 for a naive guess - **I would not be concerned about West Virginia. There's no chance the state will swing blue.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100) - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1dff06ac-6afd-4cba-8d04-66989cafbd39 (scored 100) - Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100) - Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0) - Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 0) - Henry Olsen: Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/95ac712b-4c9a-4c59-ad58-88552ecace4c (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=steve-deace