# Reid Wilson: Wilson expects several governors to survive or win despite turbulence: Kotek in Oregon, Klobuchar in Minnesota by a narrower margin than expected, Sand winning Iowa by a growing margin, and Ayotte safe in New Hampshire. He also says he would not be surprised if Aaron Ford wins Nevada.

**Claimed:** Oct 29, 2026
**Pundit:** Reid Wilson — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/reid-wilson
**Outlet:** The Chuck ToddCast — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-chuck-toddcast
**How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview
**Original:** https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/claritaspod.com/measure/pscrb.fm/rss/p/pscrb.fm/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/p57137/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/c749d540-b5b7-42b1-a855-b33100f844fa/2e1a9ce7-965e-4427-a83a-b4f101763c97/audio.mp3?in_playlist=8e017e60-9c2d-418d-97bb-b33100f84504

5 checkable claims — 5 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.

> Well, he's going to win and he's going to win by by an increasingly large margin.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **another candidate who's going to win but not by the margin that she should is Amy Klobuchar in Minnesota. That's going to be a closer race than people think.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **No she's she's a familiar face is rob sand how lonely of a victory is he gonna have. / Well, he's going to win and he's going to win by by an increasingly large margin.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **And I would totally not be surprised if Aaron Ford wins.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **yes, it's going to win. It is like the one Republican incumbent this year who's completely safe and hasn't been terribly close to her Democratic opponents.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **Tina Kotek is way up there. I think she probably wins.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: not settled yet

## More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0)
- Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100)
- Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100)
- Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0)
- Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0)
- Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

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