# Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. **Claimed:** Nov 9, 2022 **Pundit:** Jim Geraghty — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jim-geraghty **Outlet:** The Megyn Kelly Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-megyn-kelly-show **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/101/arttrk.com/p/24FDE/claritaspod.com/measure/sxm.simplecastaudio.com/853ccd10-364f-4b0b-831e-c2bed24d85e7/episodes/a255652a-3d98-45eb-860e-879dee6286e2/audio/128/default.mp3?aid=rss_feed&awCollectionId=853ccd10-364f-4b0b-831e-c2bed24d85e7&awEpisodeId=a255652a-3d98-45eb-860e-879dee6286e2&feed=RV1USAfC 9 checkable claims — 7 race winners and 2 control of congress — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 9 have settled, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I still think it's fairly obvious that Republicans will win the house. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Georgia, I mean, look, maybe Walker, he's he's not too far below that 50%, but this is probably going to a runoff. I still like his odds in a runoff** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **So I think that one's Ron Ron Johnson's got that one, but we may not know until tomorrow.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Republican Jen Kiggins has a lead of 55% to 44% over Elaine Luria. Looks like Republicans will get that one.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **And I think Nevada is the safer bet of the two. Laxalt's been a very strong candidate, had a small but consistent lead in the polling.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **It looks like Ted Budd is going to win in North Carolina.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **I still think it's fairly obvious that Republicans will win the house.** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **And are are you still predicting GOP takes the senate by, like, one quickly? Yeah. You know, lack of salt. Don't make me look stupid.** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin haven't gotten calls on any of these yet, but I think they're all looking pretty Republican. Vance is now in the lead again.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Fetterman is looking like he's gonna pull it out in Pennsylvania. Oz is down by, like, four percentage points.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) - Doug Schoen: Schoen predicted a decisive Republican victory: the House with a 30-to-35-seat majority and the Senate with roughly 51 or 52 seats, while saying Kathy Hochul holds a clear advantage in New York and Ron DeSantis wins big in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/386f50c7-6523-4997-8d80-f0d9bae3ac4b (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=jim-geraghty