# Rich Davis: Rich picked all four road underdogs: Bills 34-17 over Denver, the Niners at Seattle, the Texans in New England and the Bears to beat the Rams outright.

**Claimed:** Jan 17, 2026
**Pundit:** Rich Davis — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/rich-davis
**Outlet:** The Dan Patrick Show (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-dan-patrick-show-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview
**Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/covinoandrich/hour-2-divisional-round-picks-brainwave

3 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks and 1 score prediction — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 3 have settled, averaging 5.6 out of 100, against 65.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> I have the Bills, Niners, Texans Bears.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Chicago Bears to beat Rams**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Chicago Bears
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Jan 18, 2026): Rams by 3.5 · underdog pick, Bears about 1 in 3 (36%). Graded on who won, not on the spread. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Houston Texans to beat Patriots**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Houston Texans
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Jan 18, 2026): Patriots by 3 · underdog pick, Texans 38%. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Buffalo Bills 34 — Broncos 17**
  - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Buffalo Bills
  - Verdict: scored 16.67 out of 100, against 97.69 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Jan 17, 2026): Broncos by 1.5, total 45.5 · this 34–17 calls a Bills win (by 17; the line gave the Bills 48%) and more points (51). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.

## Who this take is about

- Chicago Bears — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bears
- Houston Texans — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/texans
- Buffalo Bills — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bills

## What others said about the same people

- John Middlekauff on Caleb Williams: Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. They are pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying they'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. They also see Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/deaaf3f6-e53e-4080-a0ca-d5f872b54c6a (scored 0)
- Pete Prisco on Buffalo Bills: Prisco picked the Bills to win 21-14 at Minnesota. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/baf85732-a389-4d56-8efe-5ce1e77fb8ae (scored 76.19)
- John Breech on Buffalo Bills: Breech picked the Bills to beat the Vikings on Monday night by a score of 24-17. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4d22cd22-c9e2-4e03-ac32-129a116a34d0 (scored 76.19)
- Jordan Dajani on Buffalo Bills: Dajani picked the Bills to edge the Vikings 24-23. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/28009098-d828-4465-9c7f-f92dac661f0a (scored 61.9)
- Jared Dubin on Buffalo Bills: Dubin picked Buffalo to win a low-scoring Monday night game in Minnesota, 20-14. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4535f610-1df1-45e9-a603-fae7ef72893f (scored 73.81)
- Tyler Sullivan on Buffalo Bills: Sullivan picked the Bills to beat the Vikings 24-17. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/bd29eda0-d993-4b00-af09-edb0051a4f4b (scored 76.19)

## More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Sam Monson on New York Giants: Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f4cb7a1e-1380-4f08-b39b-1432b97db846 (scored 0)
- Eva Geitheim on Washington Commanders: Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c011abef-0b18-41ad-acad-6a67dfbd41fd (scored 100)
- Conor Orr on New York Giants: Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ba669379-043c-448a-a167-2f2e3695a52e (scored 0)
- Albert Breer on New York Giants: Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/fdc16abc-9ae2-4bf4-a327-8e9d9ae283b6 (scored 0)
- Mitch Goldich on New York Giants: Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/706c628f-bb25-4892-b33e-84c81bfb6e4a (scored 0)
- Matt Verderame on New York Giants: Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dfeb0994-1abf-414f-b153-d01b6e4e5365 (scored 0)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

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