# Matt Miller: In his 2026 seven-round mock draft, Miller has Fernando Mendoza going No. 1 overall, Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Francis Mauigoa to Arizona at No. 3, Jeremiah Love to Tennessee at No. 4, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Carnell Tate to the Browns at No. 6, and a series of other first- and second-round picks including Ty Simpson to the Jets at the top of round two. **Claimed:** Mar 31, 2026 **Pundit:** Matt Miller — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/matt-miller **Outlet:** The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-rich-eisen-show-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.megaphone.fm/ESP9257538732.mp3?updated=1774980438 27 checkable claims — 26 mock draft picks and 1 pro bowl and all-pro call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 43 players and teams, each linked to their own record. 26 of 27 have settled so far, averaging 74.5 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls. > So I go back to Love as the best player in this class in my opinion, and they have a need there. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Carson Beck to be picked “starts off the third round” (picks 65–100)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Carson Beck, Arizona Cardinals - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Sonny Styles to be picked at number 10** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Sonny Styles, Cincinnati Bengals - Verdict: scored 87.81 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **David Bailey to be picked at number 8** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: David Bailey, New Orleans Saints - Verdict: scored 77.11 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Fernando Mendoza - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 4** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Jeremiyah Love, Tennessee Titans - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Caleb Downs to be picked at number 5** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Caleb Downs, New York Giants - Verdict: scored 77.11 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 3** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Francis Mauigoa, Arizona Cardinals - Verdict: scored 73.84 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Carnell Tate to be picked at number 6** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Carnell Tate, Cleveland Browns - Verdict: scored 91.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Makai Lemon to be picked at number 11** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Makai Lemon, Miami Dolphins - Verdict: scored 67.71 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Kenyon Sadiq to be picked at number 14** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Kenyon Sadiq, Baltimore Ravens - Verdict: scored 91.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Kadyn Proctor to be picked at number 21** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Kadyn Proctor, Pittsburgh Steelers - Verdict: scored 67.71 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Ty Simpson to be picked at number 33** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Ty Simpson, New York Jets - Verdict: scored 42.04 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Denzel Boston to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Denzel Boston, Las Vegas Raiders - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Omar Cooper to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Omar Cooper, Buffalo Bills - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Avieon Terrell to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Avieon Terrell, Kansas City Chiefs - Verdict: scored 50 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **K.C. Concepcion to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: K.C. Concepcion, New York Giants - Verdict: scored 67.71 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Eli Stowers to be picked at number 40** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Eli Stowers, Miami Dolphins - Verdict: scored 54.53 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Colton Hood to be picked at number 30** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Colton Hood, Miami Dolphins - Verdict: scored 73.84 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Jadarian Price to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Jadarian Price, Minnesota Vikings - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Dillon Thieneman to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Dillon Thieneman, Minnesota Vikings - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Garrett Nussmeier to be picked at number 53** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Garrett Nussmeier, Pittsburgh Steelers - Verdict: scored 0.02 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Drew Allar to be picked “second round choice” (picks 33–64)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Drew Allar, Los Angeles Rams - Verdict: scored 59.46 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Rueben Bain to be picked at number 9** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Rueben Bain, Kansas City Chiefs - Verdict: scored 77.11 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Jermod McCoy to be picked at number 12** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Jermod McCoy, Dallas Cowboys - Verdict: scored 2.12 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Mansoor Delane to be picked at number 7** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Mansoor Delane, Washington Commanders - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Arvell Reese, New York Jets - Verdict: scored 87.81 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Eli Stowers to make Pro Bowl** - Kind: Pro Bowl and All-Pro Calls · About: Eli Stowers, Miami Dolphins - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - Carson Beck — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/carson-beck - Arizona Cardinals — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/cardinals - Sonny Styles — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/sonny-styles - Cincinnati Bengals — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bengals - David Bailey — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/david-bailey - New Orleans Saints — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/saints - Fernando Mendoza — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/fernando-mendoza - Jeremiyah Love — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/jeremiyah-love - Tennessee Titans — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/titans - Caleb Downs — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/caleb-downs - New York Giants — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/giants - Francis Mauigoa — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/francis-mauigoa - Carnell Tate — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/carnell-tate - Cleveland Browns — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/browns - Makai Lemon — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/makai-lemon - Miami Dolphins — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/dolphins - Kenyon Sadiq — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/kenyon-sadiq - Baltimore Ravens — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/ravens - Kadyn Proctor — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/kadyn-proctor - Pittsburgh Steelers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/steelers - Ty Simpson — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/ty-simpson - New York Jets — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/jets - Denzel Boston — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/denzel-boston - Las Vegas Raiders — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/raiders - Omar Cooper — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/omar-cooper - Buffalo Bills — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bills - Avieon Terrell — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/avieon-terrell - Kansas City Chiefs — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/chiefs - K.C. Concepcion — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/k-c-concepcion - Eli Stowers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/eli-stowers - Colton Hood — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/colton-hood - Jadarian Price — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/jadarian-price - Minnesota Vikings — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/vikings - Dillon Thieneman — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/dillon-thieneman - Garrett Nussmeier — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/garrett-nussmeier - Drew Allar — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/drew-allar - Los Angeles Rams — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/rams - Rueben Bain — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/rueben-bain - Jermod McCoy — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/jermod-mccoy - Dallas Cowboys — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/cowboys - Mansoor Delane — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/mansoor-delane - Washington Commanders — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/commanders - Arvell Reese — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/arvell-reese ## What others said about the same people - Chris Simms on Kansas City Chiefs: Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/662b7ba3-1bf6-4ad0-9f93-9f2ab83143fd (scored 100) - Connor Rogers on New York Giants: Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/83d1e88b-95a0-45ba-83d3-f86297170c6c (scored 100) - Chris Long on Cincinnati Bengals: Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3df9ea25-e57f-4fd7-b20c-c910a1c3633a (scored 0) - Steven Ruiz on Las Vegas Raiders: Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a30ff469-4972-4c48-855b-ba984e4de9d0 (scored 100) - Nate Tice on Baltimore Ravens: Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b8378e16-ea5c-4107-a883-28aaf0e71134 (scored 100) - Sam Monson on Minnesota Vikings: Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/0b810ffd-fd93-4ea2-a208-b1353dea5fb0 (scored 100) ## More mock draft picks The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Ryan Wilson on J.J. McCarthy: Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/44cc5859-8b2b-4fbf-b5c0-62c635f2e357 (scored 36.92) - Daniel Jeremiah on Keyron Crawford: In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f60c916c-1b5f-4252-8733-1770c7809577 (scored 80.52) - Jeff Cavanaugh on Lorenzo Styles: Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f1f48cc1-f9d5-44ca-b130-2c6447b49bc6 (scored 0.51) - Scott Bogman on Olaivavega Ioane: He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/0b0cd1a9-31f7-40d9-9b9e-f52957c10494 (scored 70.71) - Steve Mensch on Caleb Lomu: Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f65851f3-1c53-4ae9-80ef-875db5ce2a3f (scored 62.09) - Pat Fitzmaurice on Cashius Howell: Making a third of the mock's picks, he gave Reuben Bain to Arizona at 3, Francis Mauinoa to Cleveland at 6, Jeremiah Love to Kansas City at 9, Mansoor Delane to Dallas at 12, Cassius Howell to Tampa Bay at 15, Avieon Terrell to Minnesota at 18, Makai Lemon to Pittsburgh at 21, KC Concepcion to Cleveland at 24, Kadyn Proctor to San Francisco at 27 and TJ Parker to New England at 30. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a61a436c-f178-40ce-aedd-fa92cbc80c82 (scored 32.42) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=matt-miller