# Chris Stirewalt: Stirewalt called Pennsylvania's Senate race a pure toss-up but said Josh Shapiro was bound to keep the Pennsylvania governorship for Democrats, gave Kathy Hochul a narrow edge in New York, favored Gretchen Whitmer over Tudor Dixon in Michigan, and said Florida Democrats Val Demings and Charlie Crist were headed for defeat. **Claimed:** Nov 7, 2022 **Pundit:** Chris Stirewalt — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/chris-stirewalt **Outlet:** The Megyn Kelly Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-megyn-kelly-show **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/101/arttrk.com/p/24FDE/claritaspod.com/measure/sxm.simplecastaudio.com/853ccd10-364f-4b0b-831e-c2bed24d85e7/episodes/e4a2132c-b0fe-4ab7-a970-85fea3a45d94/audio/128/default.mp3?aid=rss_feed&awCollectionId=853ccd10-364f-4b0b-831e-c2bed24d85e7&awEpisodeId=e4a2132c-b0fe-4ab7-a970-85fea3a45d94&feed=RV1USAfC 5 checkable claims — 5 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 5 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls. > So Josh Shapiro is riding high in Pennsylvania and seems like he is bound to keep the Governor's Mansion there blue. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **I would say that Hochul is, Hochul is favored. I I would give her the edge, but not by much, and it wouldn't take much of a good Republican climate, to put Zelda in.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **do stuff either in races that are that are lost, like Florida. Right? You know, Val Deming is gonna lose.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **I think Tudor Dixon has a chance. I would favor Whitmer, certainly, but I think she's got a chance** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Charlie Crist is gonna set a record. I believe he is the only person to have lost statewide office under three different, party banners as a democrat, a republican, and an independent.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Josh Shapiro is, riding high in Pennsylvania and seems like he is bound, to keep the Governor's Mansion there blue.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=chris-stirewalt