# John Middlekauff: Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. They are pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying they'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. They also see Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix. **Claimed:** Sep 10, 2025 **Pundit:** John Middlekauff — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/john-middlekauff **Outlet:** 3 and Out with John Middlekauff (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/3-and-out-with-john-middlekauff-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/3-and-out-with-john-middlekauff/is-caleb-williams-a-bust-qb-and-coach-relationship-49ers-cut-moody 6 claims — 2 award picks, 2 mock draft picks, 1 draft bust call and 1 season win total — the 5 we can check each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record. All 5 calls we can check have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 40 for a naive guess at the same calls. The other one was too vague to check, so it is not graded. > I would be stunned if one of those two guys doesn't win the MVP this year. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Caleb Williams to disappoint at the next level** - Kind: Draft Bust Calls · About: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Josh Allen to win MVP** - Kind: Award Picks · About: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Lamar Jackson to win MVP** - Kind: Award Picks · About: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **John Mateer to be picked “first round pick” (picks 1–32)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: John Mateer - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **John Mateer to be picked “top fifteen to twenty pick” (picks 1–15)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: John Mateer - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - “Now, after watching that last night, like, yeah, six seven wins, that's what I feel like, that's gonna be your quarterback” - Kind: Season Win Totals · About: Chicago Bears - Verdict: too vague to check ## Who this take is about - Caleb Williams — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/caleb-williams - Chicago Bears — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bears - Josh Allen — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/josh-allen - Buffalo Bills — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bills - Lamar Jackson — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/lamar-jackson - Baltimore Ravens — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/ravens - John Mateer — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/john-mateer ## What others said about the same people - Pete Prisco on Buffalo Bills: Prisco picked the Bills to win 21-14 at Minnesota. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/baf85732-a389-4d56-8efe-5ce1e77fb8ae (scored 76.19) - John Breech on Buffalo Bills: Breech picked the Bills to beat the Vikings on Monday night by a score of 24-17. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4d22cd22-c9e2-4e03-ac32-129a116a34d0 (scored 76.19) - Jordan Dajani on Buffalo Bills: Dajani picked the Bills to edge the Vikings 24-23. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/28009098-d828-4465-9c7f-f92dac661f0a (scored 61.9) - Jared Dubin on Buffalo Bills: Dubin picked Buffalo to win a low-scoring Monday night game in Minnesota, 20-14. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4535f610-1df1-45e9-a603-fae7ef72893f (scored 73.81) - Tyler Sullivan on Buffalo Bills: Sullivan picked the Bills to beat the Vikings 24-17. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/bd29eda0-d993-4b00-af09-edb0051a4f4b (scored 76.19) - Trevor Ripley on Buffalo Bills: Ripley picks the Bills to beat the Vikings in their Week 9 Monday night matchup, predicting a 27-20 Buffalo win, and expects Carson Wentz to start for Minnesota with Kyler Murray sidelined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d007779f-687d-4623-87c1-8a62c6d62b06 (scored 76.19) ## More mock draft picks The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Chris Simms on Malachi Corley: Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c0fd4647-2de8-4a5f-bac2-950fed303ee9 (scored 11.46) - Todd McShay on Keelon Russell: While breaking down LSU's offense, McShay called receiver Jackson Harris a top-50 NFL draft prospect, and later said LSU's Sam Levitt and Alabama's Keelan Russell are potential top-10 picks in a future draft. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/15d40546-2ab9-4ab8-b5bd-ed0ef7f26ae5 (scored 0) - Philip Hughes on Kyle Kennard: Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/605a686a-b5f1-4611-82b4-961abf8de93e (scored 33.86) - Blaine Grisak on Brian Thomas Jr.: Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/627bcf5d-9f1d-4a34-a1b7-53b8f0aebc40 (scored 84.09) - Charlie Campbell on Xavier Williams: Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2dd4bf46-e5eb-4dff-8500-95d9fdbd2986 (scored 0) - Walt on Fernando Mendoza: In a running series of coach/GM hiring and firing grades, Walt projects Fernando Mendoza as the No. 1 overall pick of the Raiders in the 2026 draft and has LSU's Garrett Nussmeier going No. 2 overall in their 2026 mock draft. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/29bb2d31-fbe3-40db-b378-be5ba5d990b0 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=john-middlekauff