# Matt Harmon: Harmon picked Green Bay, Houston, Chicago, Baltimore, New England and Buffalo in Week 6, said the Chargers lose to the Chiefs and finish with about four wins, and offered a Hail Mary that Cam Ward throws for more than 270 yards.

**Claimed:** Oct 15, 2026
**Pundit:** Matt Harmon — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/matt-harmon
**Outlet:** Football 301 with Nate Tice (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/football-301-with-nate-tice-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://injector.simplecastaudio.com/0781c6b2-a56c-4448-9b62-fe6d25b9523b/episodes/7185e8b6-d6ca-4302-8e58-cec53020bf25/audio/128/default.mp3?aid=rss_feed&awCollectionId=0781c6b2-a56c-4448-9b62-fe6d25b9523b&awEpisodeId=7185e8b6-d6ca-4302-8e58-cec53020bf25&feed=Nvy5cWFT

6 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

5 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 60 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.

> Cam Ward is going to is going to throw for more than 270 yards this week.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Buffalo Bills to beat Raiders**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Buffalo Bills
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Oct 18, 2026): Bills by 5.5 · favorite pick, Bills about 2 in 3 (68%). Graded on who won, not on the spread. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Kansas City Chiefs to beat chargers**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Kansas City Chiefs
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Oct 18, 2026): Chiefs by 7.5 · favorite pick, Chiefs about 4 in 5 (79%). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Green Bay Packers to beat cowboys**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Green Bay Packers
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Oct 18, 2026): Cowboys by 1.5 · a toss-up, Cowboys 51%, Packers 49%. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **New England Patriots to beat jets**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: New England Patriots
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Oct 18, 2026): Patriots by 7.5 · favorite pick, Patriots about 3 in 4 (74%). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Houston Texans to beat Jags**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Houston Texans
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Oct 18, 2026): Jaguars by 2.5 · underdog pick, Texans 44%. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Los Angeles Chargers to finish with 4 wins**
  - Kind: Season Win Totals · About: Los Angeles Chargers
  - Verdict: not settled yet

## Who this take is about

- Buffalo Bills — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bills
- Kansas City Chiefs — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/chiefs
- Green Bay Packers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/packers
- New England Patriots — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/patriots
- Houston Texans — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/texans
- Los Angeles Chargers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/chargers

## What others said about the same people

- Bill Huber on Green Bay Packers: Huber argues Green Bay has no excuses left and will beat New England in Foxborough, and expects Christian Watson to play despite his rib injury. He also sketches the projected interior offensive line, with John Williams at center and Laken Tomlinson at right guard. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5ab5fa3a-4526-46a4-b11b-a2bc99820cb8 (scored 100)
- Pete Prisco on Houston Texans: Prisco gives score predictions for every Week 9 NFL game, picking the Bengals to rout the Falcons in Madrid, the Cowboys to rebound at Indianapolis, and the Jaguars to win in Baltimore without Lamar Jackson. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dc43909b-bc7f-47aa-b208-5cf7c95844bc (scored 54.76)
- Jared Koch on Houston Texans: Koch predicts the Texans will beat the winless Chargers on the road in Week 9 by at least 10 points, with Houston's defense forcing a couple of turnovers to set up a multiple-score win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e2861ce9-d1de-4f34-b001-83e64c3f5770 (scored 100)
- Derek Brown on Green Bay Packers: Brown picked the Bengals to beat the Falcons in Madrid, the Packers to win outright in New England and the Bills to beat the Vikings on Monday night. He was bullish on Jonah Coleman's rest-of-season value, expected Jonathan Taylor to play for the Colts, floated a Breece Hall trade, and did not expect DJ Reed to play in Week 9. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b4014405-6764-427e-9708-679baf6b06de (scored 100)
- Pat Fitzmaurice on New England Patriots: Fitzmaurice predicted a 24-21 Patriots win over the Packers, said he would not be surprised if Jonathan Taylor were inactive amid trade talk, pegged Jonah Coleman as an RB22 rest-of-season value, expected Evan Hull to be Arizona's backup back, and saw Kerby Joseph returning in Week 10 or 11. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/41cd806b-d6f3-401d-ac46-33a027d3a0fd (scored 14.29)
- Danny Parkins on Green Bay Packers: Parkins named the seven AFC teams he believes are already set as the playoff field, expects Chicago, Buffalo and Kansas City to win this week, took Green Bay over New England and Atlanta over Cincinnati outright, and kept Bills–Bears as his Super Bowl matchup with the Giants still winning the NFC East. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/272d1f8a-06f7-4b8b-8480-94d370ae5e6f (scored 100)

## More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Jeremy Brener on Seattle Seahawks: Brener picked the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in Week 9 by a multi-score margin, giving a final score of 27-13, and expressed confidence Seattle would be fine with Drew Lock starting at quarterback. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7eb2d245-63d0-4be0-80ba-3f60197e2b16 (scored 100)
- Albert Breer on Seattle Seahawks: Breer picks the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in their Week 9 NFC West matchup. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4d67a8a5-0c05-4abe-b2ca-f0cef8390b1d (scored 100)
- Tyler Sullivan on Seattle Seahawks: Sullivan picks the Seahawks to win in Week 9. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dfca04b3-5c80-4a2e-b0de-8ac3a25f225b (scored 100)
- Dave Richard on Seattle Seahawks: Richard picks the Seahawks over the Cardinals. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d3db433e-52c6-42d1-a3b0-6b342aac8a9e (scored 100)
- John Pluym on Seattle Seahawks: Pluym picks the Seahawks over the Cardinals. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e3897747-c55f-4340-9e82-03f9730f87ba (scored 100)
- Pamela Maldonado on Seattle Seahawks: Maldonado picks the Seahawks in Week 9. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/38b2ad8f-9672-44e8-b3c2-b8ad3b004c09 (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
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