# Matt Verderame: Verderame's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.

**Claimed:** Sep 9, 2026
**Pundit:** Matt Verderame — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/matt-verderame
**Outlet:** Sports Illustrated — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/sports-illustrated
**How it reached us:** published in writing
**Original:** https://www.si.com/nfl/2026-nfl-week-1-staff-expert-picks

16 checkable claims — 16 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 16 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 16 have settled, averaging 62.5 out of 100, against 62.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

## The claims

- **Kansas City Chiefs to beat Broncos**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Kansas City Chiefs
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Sep 14, 2026): Chiefs by 2.5 · favorite pick, Chiefs 54%. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Baltimore Ravens to beat Colts**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Baltimore Ravens
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Sep 13, 2026): Ravens by 3 · favorite pick, Ravens 59%. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Falcons**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Pittsburgh Steelers
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Sep 13, 2026): Steelers by 6.5 · favorite pick, Steelers 72%. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Houston Texans to beat Bills**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Houston Texans
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Sep 13, 2026): Bills by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 50%, Texans 50%. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Philadelphia Eagles to beat Commanders**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Philadelphia Eagles
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Sep 13, 2026): Eagles by 6 · favorite pick, Eagles about 2 in 3 (68%). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Green Bay Packers to beat Vikings**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Green Bay Packers
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Sep 13, 2026): Vikings by 1.5 · a toss-up, Packers 47%, Vikings 53%. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Detroit Lions to beat Saints**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Detroit Lions
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Sep 13, 2026): Lions by 7 · favorite pick, Lions about 3 in 4 (73%). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Los Angeles Chargers to beat Cardinals**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Los Angeles Chargers
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Sep 13, 2026): Chargers by 8.5 · favorite pick, Chargers about 4 in 5 (79%). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Las Vegas Raiders to beat Dolphins**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Las Vegas Raiders
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Sep 13, 2026): Raiders by 3 · favorite pick, Raiders 60%. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Tennessee Titans to beat Jets**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Tennessee Titans
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Sep 13, 2026): Titans by 1.5 · a toss-up, Jets 48%, Titans 52%. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Dallas Cowboys to beat Giants**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Dallas Cowboys
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Sep 13, 2026): Cowboys by 3 · favorite pick, Cowboys 60%. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Cincinnati Bengals to beat Buccaneers**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Cincinnati Bengals
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Sep 13, 2026): Bengals by 3.5 · favorite pick, Bengals about 2 in 3 (64%). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Browns**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Jacksonville Jaguars
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Sep 13, 2026): Jaguars by 8.5 · favorite pick, Jaguars about 4 in 5 (79%). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Chicago Bears to beat Panthers**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Chicago Bears
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Sep 13, 2026): Bears by 3 · favorite pick, Bears 60%. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Los Angeles Rams to beat 49ers**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Los Angeles Rams
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Sep 10, 2026): Rams by 3.5 · favorite pick, Rams about 2 in 3 (66%). Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Seattle Seahawks to beat Patriots**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Seattle Seahawks
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Sep 9, 2026): Seahawks by 3 · favorite pick, Seahawks 60%. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.

## Who this take is about

- Kansas City Chiefs — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/chiefs
- Baltimore Ravens — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/ravens
- Pittsburgh Steelers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/steelers
- Houston Texans — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/texans
- Philadelphia Eagles — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/eagles
- Green Bay Packers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/packers
- Detroit Lions — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/lions
- Los Angeles Chargers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/chargers
- Las Vegas Raiders — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/raiders
- Tennessee Titans — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/titans
- Dallas Cowboys — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/cowboys
- Cincinnati Bengals — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bengals
- Jacksonville Jaguars — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/jaguars
- Chicago Bears — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bears
- Los Angeles Rams — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/rams
- Seattle Seahawks — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/seahawks

## What others said about the same people

- Chris Clark on Nikko Remigio: Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/99521265-d5c0-4db1-b2a0-fe77908ea0b3 (scored 0)
- Nate Gosney on Daiyan Henley: After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/60272861-4ad0-4749-b36a-dcdf09b9213f (scored 0)
- Gilberto Manzano on Josh Downs: Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/67d5af78-94ea-4ee2-a277-5e68347022de (scored 100)
- Joshua Poniatowski on Josh Downs: Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d1752582-a799-48b9-984b-39bf7cb8b709 (scored 100)
- Andrew Erickson on Josh Downs: Erickson floated Kansas City as the landing spot for Josh Downs and said a trade there would make them at least a WR3 rest of season; they also expect Rashee Rice to leave the Chiefs after this season as a free agent. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e97e28f2-31fc-4702-915c-63c38477e97d (scored 100)
- Jordan Dajani on Josh Downs: After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f5af1657-8608-4071-a63e-0e7d6124e627 (scored 100)

## More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Sam Monson on New York Giants: Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f4cb7a1e-1380-4f08-b39b-1432b97db846 (scored 0)
- Eva Geitheim on Washington Commanders: Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c011abef-0b18-41ad-acad-6a67dfbd41fd (scored 100)
- Conor Orr on New York Giants: Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ba669379-043c-448a-a167-2f2e3695a52e (scored 0)
- Albert Breer on New York Giants: Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/fdc16abc-9ae2-4bf4-a327-8e9d9ae283b6 (scored 0)
- Mitch Goldich on New York Giants: Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/706c628f-bb25-4892-b33e-84c81bfb6e4a (scored 0)
- John Pluym on New York Giants: Pluym picked the Giants, Patriots, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Colts, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8a940f59-49e6-4c02-8e75-60671656da04 (scored 0)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

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