# Nick Baumgardner: The Athletic's draft analyst laid out a full slate of expectations for the upcoming NFL Draft: Abdul Carter to Tennessee at No. 1, Shedeur Sanders falling to the back half of the first or top of the second, Ashton Jeanty as a top-10 pick, Travis Hunter as the class's best player going in the top five, and only two quarterbacks plus fewer than three running backs but more than three receivers taken in Round 1. **Claimed:** Mar 31, 2025 **Pundit:** Nick Baumgardner — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nick-baumgardner **Outlet:** The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-rich-eisen-show-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.megaphone.fm/WWO2457329519.mp3?updated=1743446952 9 checkable claims — 8 mock draft picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record. 7 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 80.8 out of 100, against 47.9 for a naive guess at the same calls. > My gut there says Abdul Carter, at one for Tennessee. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Abdul Carter to be picked at number 1** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Abdul Carter, Tennessee Titans - Verdict: scored 91.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Travis Hunter to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Travis Hunter - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Ashton Jeanty to be picked “top 10 pick” (picks 1–10)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Ashton Jeanty - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Shedeur Sanders to be picked “back half of the first round, top of the second round” (picks 1–64)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Shedeur Sanders - Verdict: scored 3.13 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Omarion Hampton to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Omarion Hampton - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Tetairoa McMillan to be picked “top 10 pick” (picks 1–10)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona Cardinals - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Jalen Milroe to be 3rd quarterback off the board** - Kind: Position Order Calls · About: Jalen Milroe - Verdict: scored 70.71 out of 100, against 35 for a naive guess - **TreVeyon Henderson to be picked “day two”** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: TreVeyon Henderson - Verdict: not settled yet - **Quinshon Judkins to be picked “day two”** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Quinshon Judkins - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - Abdul Carter — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/abdul-carter - Tennessee Titans — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/titans - Travis Hunter — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/travis-hunter - Ashton Jeanty — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/ashton-jeanty - Shedeur Sanders — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/shedeur-sanders - Omarion Hampton — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/omarion-hampton - Tetairoa McMillan — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/tetairoa-mcmillan - Arizona Cardinals — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/cardinals - Jalen Milroe — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/jalen-milroe - TreVeyon Henderson — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/treveyon-henderson - Quinshon Judkins — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/quinshon-judkins ## What others said about the same people - Shaun Calderon on Jeffery Simmons: Calderon argues the 0-5 Titans won't turn their season around, that Cam Ward won't be benched soon, and that Jeffery Simmons stays in Tennessee while Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley are likely trade candidates with modest returns. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/fcfebcd7-04de-406f-aa74-4c404a9f8b0e (scored 0) - Jeremy Brener on Jalen Milroe: Brener suggests Seattle may turn to rookie-contract quarterback Jalen Milroe for their first career start in Week 9 against the Cardinals, with Sam Darnold ruled out and Drew Lock dealing with an elbow injury. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/42d1bd81-5e19-456e-9f68-b3b135170ec0 (scored 0) - Michael Moore on Shedeur Sanders: In a Week 9 injury roundup, Moore forecast which banged-up fantasy contributors would play or sit: Deshaun Watson, Garrett Wilson, David Montgomery, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, TreVeyon Henderson and Terrance Ferguson are expected out, while Travis Kelce, Saquon Barkley, Michael Wilson, Christian Watson and Emeka Egbuka should play. They also expect Shedeur Sanders and Drew Lock to start at quarterback. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e26319a3-10aa-49a6-a24d-a257521363f0 (scored 100) - Zachary Pereles on Shedeur Sanders: Pereles writes that if Deshaun Watson can't clear concussion protocol in time, the Browns would likely turn to second-year quarterback Shedeur Sanders to start Week 9 against the Saints. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6dad75dd-1818-4a6a-91ea-832f491c2530 (scored 100) - Garrett Podell on Carson Beck: Podell argues the Cardinals have maxed out with Jacoby Brissett and that rookie Carson Beck should be ramped up to replace them as starter, targeting Week 8 at Dallas for Beck's regular-season debut. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2f499498-ebbe-41f8-8ea3-41fe96f79432 (scored 0) - Jesse Holley on Arizona Cardinals: Jesse predicted the Cowboys finish 10-7 but still win the NFC East with 10 wins, picking Dallas over the Giants, Commanders, Texans, Buccaneers, Colts (loss), and losing to Baltimore, Green Bay, Philadelphia twice, Arizona, Seattle and the Rams. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c8bf64dc-c1b3-42db-86f8-51b862676332 (scored 100) ## More mock draft picks The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Chris Simms on Malachi Corley: Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c0fd4647-2de8-4a5f-bac2-950fed303ee9 (scored 11.46) - Todd McShay on Keelon Russell: While breaking down LSU's offense, McShay called receiver Jackson Harris a top-50 NFL draft prospect, and later said LSU's Sam Levitt and Alabama's Keelan Russell are potential top-10 picks in a future draft. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/15d40546-2ab9-4ab8-b5bd-ed0ef7f26ae5 (scored 0) - Philip Hughes on Kyle Kennard: Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/605a686a-b5f1-4611-82b4-961abf8de93e (scored 33.86) - Blaine Grisak on Brian Thomas Jr.: Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/627bcf5d-9f1d-4a34-a1b7-53b8f0aebc40 (scored 84.09) - Charlie Campbell on Xavier Williams: Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2dd4bf46-e5eb-4dff-8500-95d9fdbd2986 (scored 0) - Walt on Fernando Mendoza: In a running series of coach/GM hiring and firing grades, Walt projects Fernando Mendoza as the No. 1 overall pick of the Raiders in the 2026 draft and has LSU's Garrett Nussmeier going No. 2 overall in their 2026 mock draft. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/29bb2d31-fbe3-40db-b378-be5ba5d990b0 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=nick-baumgardner