# Steve Deace: Deace laid out his final 2024 electoral map, giving Trump 297 electoral votes to Harris's 241, with Trump sweeping the Sun Belt (including North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia and Arizona), winning Wisconsin and Pennsylvania but losing Michigan. He also forecast Republicans winning the Senate with 54 seats, including wins for McCormick in Pennsylvania and Moreno over Sherrod Brown in Ohio, plus an upset in Wisconsin's Senate race. **Claimed:** Oct 29, 2024 **Pundit:** Steve Deace — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/steve-deace **Outlet:** Steve Deace Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/steve-deace-show **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pfx.vpixl.com/4V6da/arttrk.com/p/BLZM1/verifi.podscribe.com/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/285/pscrb.fm/rss/p/prfx.byspotify.com/e/claritaspod.com/measure/traffic.megaphone.fm/BMDC9271119920.mp3?updated=1730228634 10 checkable claims — 6 race winners, 2 race margins, 1 chamber control and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. All 10 have settled, averaging 75 out of 100, against 23.4 for a naive guess at the same calls. > At the top, I have Trump with 297 electoral college votes, Kamala with 241. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **That Republicans, I think, end up with a minimum of 52. ... So I have Republicans finishing, with 54 US senators** - Kind: Chamber Control - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **At the top, I have Trump with 297 electoral college votes, Kamala with 241.** - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 85 out of 100, against 57 for a naive guess - **Bernie Moreno has run a good enough campaign that I think he's gonna he's gonna beat Sherrod Brown** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **At the top, I have Trump with 297 electoral college votes, Kamala with 241.** - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 85 out of 100, against 57 for a naive guess - **since the the Wisconsin Republican candidate doesn't have as much baggage as as Carrie Lake does, I'll choose that one. But I think Republicans are gonna flip one of those** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **So I have Republicans finishing, with 54 US senators** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 80 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess - **I believe that Trump is gonna sweep the Sun Belt, and and I think for the first time since 1988, the, the the Rust Belt, the big three Rust Belt states, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, will not all vote in mass.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **That's assuming you could... You're still gonna win Wisconsin then.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **you denied Trump the state of Michigan. ... So that is the state that I am I'm I'm giving them** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **so I think I think McCormick is gonna win in Penn...** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100) - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1dff06ac-6afd-4cba-8d04-66989cafbd39 (scored 100) - Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100) - Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0) - Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 0) - Henry Olsen: Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/95ac712b-4c9a-4c59-ad58-88552ecace4c (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=steve-deace