# Jeremiah Poff: Poff says Democrats face increasingly long odds of holding Tester's Montana seat, and that both Montana and Ohio are all but certain to be won easily by Trump in the presidential race.

**Claimed:** Oct 17, 2024
**Pundit:** Jeremiah Poff — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jeremiah-poff
**Outlet:** Tangle (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/tangle-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://sphinx.acast.com/p/open/s/66510864c0852400122bc7be/e/671156f2fb3e57696128b9ac/media.mp3

3 checkable claims — 3 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 3 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> Democrats are facing increasingly long odds of holding the Montana senate seat currently held by senator Jon Tester

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- “Democrats are facing increasingly long odds of holding the Montana senate seat currently held by senator Jon Tester”
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- “Both men represent states that are all but assured of being won easily by former president Donald Trump in the concurrent presidential race”
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- “Both men represent states that are all but assured of being won easily by former president Donald Trump in the concurrent presidential race”
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess

## More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Erick-Woods Erickson: On Election Day, Erickson forecasts that Republicans will lose their House majority while holding the Senate, and picks Rick Jackson to beat Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia's governor race. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8ed3ad25-c945-43a6-8198-74886bbd2522 (scored 0)
- Carl Cannon: Cannon picked Democrats to win Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa and Kansas while Republicans hold South Carolina and Nebraska, took Michelle Tafoya as an upset special in Minnesota, and said Democrats would gain more than 30 House seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/635f269d-3c71-4998-9a1f-24cab744db76 (scored 100)
- Andrew Walworth: Walworth was the most bullish on Republicans, picking Mike Rogers in Michigan and GOP holds in Alaska, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Iowa while giving Democrats Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Minnesota, leaving a 50-50 Senate with Republicans in control. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1691eed0-1c56-418d-be99-1b448f0d3679 (scored 100)
- Tom Bevan: Bevan picked Democrats to win Michigan, Alaska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina while Republicans hold Ohio, South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa and Maine, giving Democrats a net gain of four and a 51-49 Senate majority, plus a House gain of about 26 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b5c1c97f-66d7-4b7d-b6d5-085f46495a06 (scored 0)
- Spencer Kimball: Kimball said Susan Collins would hold their Maine Senate seat despite most polls showing them behind, and projected Democrats winning the House with roughly 235-240 seats, a gain of more than 20; they called the Senate a toss-up and made no call there. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/23d6b8f8-ab6a-4dab-bdcb-5b515223983c (scored 0)
- Buck Sexton: Buck Sexton said Florida's "red wall" would hold, expressing confidence that Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody would win their statewide races there, and they called Marsha Blackburn's Tennessee governor bid essentially locked up. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/07a8919e-a9b3-4d37-b164-a40a2a42c548 (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=jeremiah-poff