# Matthew Yglesias: Yglesias says he can't tell which way the close battleground races will break, but he is confident that Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey faces no real threat from Republican "MAGA Mike" Minogue, and that Democrats have no credible path to flipping the Mississippi Senate seat Scott Colom is contesting.

**Claimed:** Oct 26, 2026
**Pundit:** Matthew Yglesias — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/matthew-yglesias
**Outlet:** Slow Boring — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/slow-boring
**How it reached us:** published in writing
**Original:** https://www.slowboring.com/p/scammy-fundraising-is-a-big-problem

2 checkable claims — 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.

> But guys. MAGA Mike Minogue is not going to become governor of Massachusetts.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **But guys. MAGA Mike Minogue is not going to become governor of Massachusetts... If she were actually facing a meaningful electoral challenge, I'd be all-in on helping her win.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **But the idea that additional fundraising is going to help Democrats flip this Senate seat doesn't seem remotely credible to me**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: not settled yet

## More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0)
- Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100)
- Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100)
- Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0)
- Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0)
- Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

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