# Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing days before the 2022 midterms, Erickson predicted Republicans would win the House, that Democrats would lose the Nevada Senate race, that Herschel Walker could win Georgia outright without a runoff, that Don Bolduc could pull an upset in New Hampshire, and that Republicans would pick up the governorships of Oregon and Nevada. **Claimed:** Nov 4, 2022 **Pundit:** Erick-Woods Erickson — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/erick-woods-erickson **Outlet:** Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/erick-erickson-newsletter-substack **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://ewerickson.substack.com/p/the-conversations-the-media-is-having 6 checkable claims — 5 race winners and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 6 have settled, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls. > The GOP will take the House. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **They'll pick up gubernatorial races in Oregon and Nevada.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **In Nevada, Democrats appear to be toast. They have not built up a sufficient enough firewall to stop the GOP.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **The GOP will take the House.** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **And Bolduc in New Hampshire could be a surprise upset.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **They'll pick up gubernatorial races in Oregon and Nevada.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **In Georgia, I have been in the minority that Walker could escape a runoff. Now that view is shifting to the majority.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=erick-woods-erickson