# Chuck Todd: Todd argues Republicans are in triage while Democrats expand the map, and lays out a ranked top-10 list of governorships most likely to flip, headed by Iowa and Kansas. They call Iowa's governorship for Democrats and Kansas's for Republicans, with the reverse in those states' Senate races, expects Democrats to take the Wisconsin governorship and Democrats to have the upper hand in Alaska, while predicting South Carolina's 1st and Virginia's 5th House districts stay Republican. **Claimed:** Oct 14, 2026 **Pundit:** Chuck Todd — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/chuck-todd **Outlet:** The Chuck ToddCast — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-chuck-toddcast **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/claritaspod.com/measure/pscrb.fm/rss/p/pscrb.fm/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/p57137/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/c749d540-b5b7-42b1-a855-b33100f844fa/8ee0e37a-c08c-404f-9cae-b4e3000d9005/audio.mp3?in_playlist=8e017e60-9c2d-418d-97bb-b33100f84504 9 checkable claims — 8 race winners and 1 seats most likely to flip — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. 6 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I think South Carolina one still probably stays Republican. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - “I think Virginia five probably stays Republican.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “I'm bullish on Iowa Gov for Democrats because I'm bearish for Iowa Senate.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “I think both Iowa and Kansas, you would say, distinctly leans to the party to flip. Leaning Democratic on the Iowa side, leaning Republican on the Kansas side.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “I'm bullish on Kansas Senate because I'm bearish on Kansas Gov for Democrats... And I think Hamilton is, you know, I think Marshall's unlikable enough and Hamilton's likable enough to be the comfortable lone Democrat.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “I think if a battleground state in this environment, advantage Democrats... It's not what I see in Wisconsin. I don't think Tom Tiffany is unique enough to carve out his own identity to overcome what I think is just an environment that is not overcomable for Republicans right now in the Midwest.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “I think South Carolina one still probably stays Republican.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “It does appear that the Democrats have the upper hand here... it does feel as if the Democratic candidate has the upper hand here.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - “So I'm ranking the 10 governorships that I think is in order of most likely to flip... number one, most likely to flip Iowa... Number two, Kansas... Number three on my list is Ohio... Number four on the list is Alaska... And number five on my list is Texas. ... Six, I have Georgia. ... Number seven on my list is Nevada. ... Oregon. ... Number nine on my list is Wisconsin. ... And then coming in at 10 is Florida.” - Kind: Seats Most Likely to Flip - Verdict: not settled yet - “Leaning Democratic on the Iowa side, leaning Republican on the Kansas side. ... but I think advantage are.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: On Election Day, Erickson forecasts that Republicans will lose their House majority while holding the Senate, and picks Rick Jackson to beat Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia's governor race. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8ed3ad25-c945-43a6-8198-74886bbd2522 (scored 0) - Carl Cannon: Cannon picked Democrats to win Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa and Kansas while Republicans hold South Carolina and Nebraska, took Michelle Tafoya as an upset special in Minnesota, and said Democrats would gain more than 30 House seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/635f269d-3c71-4998-9a1f-24cab744db76 (scored 100) - Andrew Walworth: Walworth was the most bullish on Republicans, picking Mike Rogers in Michigan and GOP holds in Alaska, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Iowa while giving Democrats Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Minnesota, leaving a 50-50 Senate with Republicans in control. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1691eed0-1c56-418d-be99-1b448f0d3679 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan picked Democrats to win Michigan, Alaska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina while Republicans hold Ohio, South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa and Maine, giving Democrats a net gain of four and a 51-49 Senate majority, plus a House gain of about 26 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b5c1c97f-66d7-4b7d-b6d5-085f46495a06 (scored 0) - Spencer Kimball: Kimball said Susan Collins would hold their Maine Senate seat despite most polls showing them behind, and projected Democrats winning the House with roughly 235-240 seats, a gain of more than 20; they called the Senate a toss-up and made no call there. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/23d6b8f8-ab6a-4dab-bdcb-5b515223983c (scored 0) - Buck Sexton: Buck Sexton said Florida's "red wall" would hold, expressing confidence that Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody would win their statewide races there, and they called Marsha Blackburn's Tennessee governor bid essentially locked up. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/07a8919e-a9b3-4d37-b164-a40a2a42c548 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=chuck-todd