# Lakshya Jain: In Split Ticket's final 2022 Senate ratings, Jain says Republicans are slightly more likely than not to take the Senate majority, rates Pennsylvania Leans Republican, and rates New Hampshire, Arizona and Nevada Leans Democratic, with Georgia expected to go to a runoff. He also says Ohio, North Carolina and Wisconsin are on solid Republican ground and that Josh Shapiro will cruise to the Pennsylvania governorship. **Claimed:** Nov 7, 2022 **Pundit:** Lakshya Jain — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/lakshya-jain **Outlet:** Split Ticket — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/split-ticket **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://split-ticket.org/2022/11/07/our-final-senate-ratings/ 10 checkable claims — 8 race winners and 2 control of congress — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 10 have settled, averaging 70 out of 100, against 90 for a naive guess at the same calls. > If we had to pick which party we think will be in the majority come January, it would probably be the Republicans. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **should give Kelly enough juice to hang on even in an R+2 year ... and so we rate this race as LEANS DEMOCRATIC .** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **With that said, if we had to pick which party we think will be in the majority come January, it would probably be the Republicans .** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **We’re of the opinion that Republicans are slightly more likely than not to regain the majority, but we wouldn’t be surprised to be proven wrong.** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **we think Cortez Masto takes this race by the barest of margins ... and so we rate this race as LEANS DEMOCRATIC .** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Josh Shapiro looks set to cruise to the governorship against state senator Doug Mastriano, who appears to be toxic to most of Pennsylvania.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Lastly, Ohio, North Carolina, and Wisconsin have now moved more firmly into the Republican column, to a point where upsets are plausible but unlikely for Democrats** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **the GOP is on far more solid ground in Wisconsin, Ohio, and North Carolina than the Democrats are in Nevada, Arizona, or Georgia** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **we are inclined to go with the party out of power in a state more Republican than the nation overall, and so we rate this seat as LEANS REPUBLICAN .** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Lastly, Ohio, North Carolina, and Wisconsin have now moved more firmly into the Republican column, to a point where upsets are plausible but unlikely for Democrats** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **While we maintain that Hassan remains the clear favorite, the race has evolved into a real one now and thus is downgraded to LEANS DEMOCRATIC.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=lakshya-jain