# Seth Keshel: Keshel forecast a broad Trump victory across the battlegrounds, saying a Harris win in Pennsylvania looks impossible, Michigan is a three-to-four point Trump state, Georgia goes Trump by 5.6 points, North Carolina by at least four, Florida by twelve to fifteen, and Nevada and Arizona fall to Trump as well; he rated New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire and Minnesota as Democratic leaners and Texas as a Trump leaner. **Claimed:** Nov 5, 2024 **Pundit:** Seth Keshel — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/seth-keshel **Outlet:** Newt's World — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/newt-s-world **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/0b197502-72fe-4046-b7b3-ae27016ec147/4185e48d-a497-4a54-be2f-b21f001305f8/audio.mp3?in_playlist=8b19f8a8-4942-4dd1-b38d-ae27016ec151 15 checkable claims — 9 race winners and 6 race margins — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. All 15 have settled, averaging 95.6 out of 100, against 63 for a naive guess at the same calls. > It may have created a narrative for what needs to be done for Harris to win Pennsylvania, which looks impossible to me. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **So I think North Carolina looks like at least four points.** - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 92.1 out of 100, against 81.4 for a naive guess - **And then you got the four Democrat leaners, which I'm calling New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **So Trump could be looking at numbers in Florida between twelve and fifteen points** - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 2.6 for a naive guess - **But with Minnesota, it's a very similar state in my analytics to Virginia. I ballpart both of those states at about three to five points just as a default setting** - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 71.3 for a naive guess - **I ballpart both of those states at about three to five points just as a default setting** - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 92.4 out of 100, against 56.5 for a naive guess - **I don't think Trump is going to win New York... I have a feeling that that numb is down in the low double digits, if not potentially inside ten** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **what needs to be done for Harris to win Pennsylvania, which looks impossible to me... it looks like we probably have enough to get Pennsylvania** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **because Michigan to me looks like a three to four point Trump state right now** - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 84.2 out of 100, against 58 for a naive guess - **And that pegged me for Georgia at a Trump margin of five point six percent.** - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 65.9 out of 100, against 75.8 for a naive guess - **So I think that Nevada is pretty much baked at this point. I don't think that she has a chance to get back in the fight.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **one hundred and twelve years of history suggests that Arizona is going to Trump too... there's the first time for everything, but I don't think it's this year** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **and two are Trump leaners less than ten North Carolina and Texas** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **And then you got the four Democrat leaners, which I'm calling New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **And then you got the four Democrat leaners, which I'm calling New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **And then you got the four Democrat leaners, which I'm calling New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100) - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1dff06ac-6afd-4cba-8d04-66989cafbd39 (scored 100) - Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100) - Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0) - Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 0) - Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=seth-keshel