# Daniel Jeremiah: Jeremiah says Fernando Mendoza is the best player in the draft and a lock to be the first overall pick by the Raiders, grades him behind the 2024 trio of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels, and outlines a mock draft with David Bailey to the Jets, Reese falling to seventh, Ruben Bain to the Titans, and Tate to the Giants at five. He also expects Ty Simpson to go outside the first round, names Brennan Thompson as the favorite for the fastest 40 at the combine, and expects Mendoza not to throw while Simpson does. **Claimed:** Feb 20, 2026 **Pundit:** Daniel Jeremiah — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/daniel-jeremiah **Outlet:** The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-rich-eisen-show-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.megaphone.fm/ESP6893641979.mp3?updated=1771613094 10 checkable claims — 7 mock draft picks, 1 combine superlative, 1 position order call and 1 top player list — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 12 players and teams, each linked to their own record. 7 of 10 have settled so far, averaging 83.9 out of 100, against 40.4 for a naive guess at the same calls. > In my opinion, I think he's the best football player in the draft. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Brenen Thompson to lead his drill at the combine** - Kind: Combine Superlatives · About: Brenen Thompson - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Ty Simpson to be picked “outside the first round” (picks 1–32)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Ty Simpson - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Carnell Tate to be picked at number 5** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Carnell Tate, New York Giants - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Jeremiyah Love to be picked “lock first round grade” (picks 1–32)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Jeremiyah Love - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Arvell Reese to be picked at number 7** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Arvell Reese - Verdict: scored 91.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Fernando Mendoza to be 1st quarterback off the board** - Kind: Position Order Calls · About: Fernando Mendoza - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 33.08 for a naive guess - **Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Fernando Mendoza, Las Vegas Raiders - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **You put out your, top 50 draft prospects ... you've got Fernando Mendoza one, and Jeremiah Love is your second best prospect ... Why do you have, Reese three and David Bailey four?** - Kind: Top Player Lists - Verdict: not settled yet - **Rueben Bain to be picked “to the Titans in mock draft”** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Rueben Bain, Tennessee Titans - Verdict: not settled yet - **David Bailey to be picked “Jets pick (No. 2 area) in mock draft”** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: David Bailey, New York Jets - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - Brenen Thompson — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/brenen-thompson - Ty Simpson — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/ty-simpson - Carnell Tate — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/carnell-tate - New York Giants — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/giants - Jeremiyah Love — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/jeremiyah-love - Arvell Reese — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/arvell-reese - Fernando Mendoza — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/fernando-mendoza - Las Vegas Raiders — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/raiders - Rueben Bain — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/rueben-bain - Tennessee Titans — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/titans - David Bailey — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/david-bailey - New York Jets — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/jets ## What others said about the same people - Chris Simms on New York Giants: Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/662b7ba3-1bf6-4ad0-9f93-9f2ab83143fd (scored 97.62) - Connor Rogers on New York Giants: Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/83d1e88b-95a0-45ba-83d3-f86297170c6c (scored 100) - Steven Ruiz on Las Vegas Raiders: Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a30ff469-4972-4c48-855b-ba984e4de9d0 (scored 100) - Nate Tice on Las Vegas Raiders: Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b8378e16-ea5c-4107-a883-28aaf0e71134 (scored 100) - John Middlekauff on Tennessee Titans: Middlekauff expects blowout wins for Seattle over Washington and Kansas City over Miami in Week 3, picks Cincinnati to beat Pittsburgh in the AFC North matchup, and takes Tennessee over the Giants if Jameis Winston is taking snaps. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8115d255-82e3-442e-aeef-c3eaa3587603 (scored 0) - Chris Broussard on Las Vegas Raiders: Broussard picked the Bills to beat the Chargers in a competitive, higher-scoring game, said the Chiefs will rout the Dolphins, and for upset alert parlayed the Patriots over the Jaguars and the Raiders over the Saints. He also restated his Cowboys-versus-Ravens Super Bowl matchup pick. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dee7585c-6da6-4afc-9954-ff32cf8de4e3 (scored 100) ## More mock draft picks The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Ryan Wilson on J.J. McCarthy: Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/44cc5859-8b2b-4fbf-b5c0-62c635f2e357 (scored 36.92) - Nick Shook on Max Iheanachor: Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7d4209aa-2e2d-47a2-b6e5-791d16d209cb (scored 87.81) - Gregg Rosenthal on K.C. Concepcion: Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8fae9a3a-7fd8-454c-99cc-0a8400c35d7d (scored 67.71) - Jeff Cavanaugh on Lorenzo Styles: Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f1f48cc1-f9d5-44ca-b130-2c6447b49bc6 (scored 0.51) - Scott Bogman on Olaivavega Ioane: He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/0b0cd1a9-31f7-40d9-9b9e-f52957c10494 (scored 70.71) - Steve Mensch on Caleb Lomu: Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f65851f3-1c53-4ae9-80ef-875db5ce2a3f (scored 62.09) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=daniel-jeremiah