# Decision Desk HQ Podcast — prediction record



## Record, pooled across everyone writing under this banner

- **Accuracy:** 88.89%
- **MissedTakes Score:** 42.76
- **Graded articles:** 4
- **Graded individual calls:** 14
- **Pundits contributing:** 5
- **Clarity:** 100%

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and the publisher is excluded from rankings.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline the calls did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Who contributes

- [Maddisen Murrell](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/maddisen-murrell): 2 graded across 1 article, 100% accuracy, score 103 (provisional)
- [Geoffrey Skelley](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/geoffrey-skelley): 17 graded across 5 articles, 82.48% accuracy, score 42.71 (provisional)
- [Nathaniel Rakich](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nathaniel-rakich): 13 graded across 5 articles, 93.36% accuracy, score 25.01 (provisional)
- [Decision Desk HQ Podcast](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/decision-desk-hq-podcast): 1 graded across 1 article, 0% accuracy, score 0 (provisional)
- [Michael Shepherd](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/michael-shepherd): 1 graded across 1 article, 100% accuracy, score 0 (provisional)

## Where the evidence is, by kind of prediction

- [Race Winners](https://missedtakes.co/predictions/race-winner): 12 graded of 14 logged, averaging 75
- [Control of Congress](https://missedtakes.co/predictions/chamber-control): 2 graded of 2 logged, averaging 100

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Page: https://missedtakes.co/outlets/decision-desk-hq-podcast
Their site: https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/5685429.rss