# Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack) — prediction record



## Record, pooled across everyone writing under this banner

- **Accuracy:** 95.5%
- **MissedTakes Score:** 68.71
- **Graded articles:** 10
- **Graded individual calls:** 28
- **Pundits contributing:** 1
- **Clarity:** 100%

LIMITED SAMPLE: between 10 and 29 graded articles. Treat with caution.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline the calls did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Who contributes

- [Erick-Woods Erickson](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/erick-woods-erickson): 28 graded across 10 articles, 95.5% accuracy, score 68.71 (limited)

## Where the evidence is, by kind of prediction

- [Race Winners](https://missedtakes.co/predictions/race-winner): 24 graded of 31 logged, averaging 87.5
- [Chamber Control](https://missedtakes.co/predictions/chamber-control): 3 graded of 6 logged, averaging 100
- [Seat Counts](https://missedtakes.co/predictions/chamber-seats): 1 graded of 2 logged, averaging 75
- [Race Margins](https://missedtakes.co/predictions/race-margin): 0 graded of 1 logged

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Page: https://missedtakes.co/outlets/erick-erickson-newsletter-substack
Their site: https://ewerickson.substack.com/