# FiveThirtyEight Politics (podcast archive) — prediction record



## Record, pooled across everyone writing under this banner

- **Accuracy:** 93.77%
- **MissedTakes Score:** 39.18
- **Graded articles:** 5
- **Graded individual calls:** 26
- **Pundits contributing:** 4
- **Clarity:** 93.37%

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and the publisher is excluded from rankings.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline the calls did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Who contributes

- [Galen Druke](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/galen-druke): 6 graded across 2 articles, 100% accuracy, score 64.25 (provisional)
- [Mary Radcliffe](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mary-radcliffe): 3 graded across 2 articles, 100% accuracy, score 52.5 (provisional)
- [Nathaniel Rakich](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nathaniel-rakich): 12 graded across 4 articles, 91.7% accuracy, score 31.26 (provisional)
- [Geoffrey Skelley](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/geoffrey-skelley): 8 graded across 2 articles, 72.88% accuracy, score 19.7 (provisional)

## Where the evidence is, by kind of prediction

- [Race Winners](https://missedtakes.co/predictions/race-winner): 19 graded of 24 logged, averaging 94.7
- [Race Margins](https://missedtakes.co/predictions/race-margin): 4 graded of 4 logged, averaging 62.6
- [Control of Congress](https://missedtakes.co/predictions/chamber-control): 3 graded of 3 logged, averaging 100

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Page: https://missedtakes.co/outlets/fivethirtyeight-politics-podcast-archive
Their site: https://feeds.megaphone.fm/ESP8794877317