# Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova — prediction record



## Record, pooled across everyone writing under this banner

- **Accuracy:** 62.5%
- **MissedTakes Score:** 63.13
- **Graded articles:** 4
- **Graded individual calls:** 5
- **Pundits contributing:** 1
- **Clarity:** 100%

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and the publisher is excluded from rankings.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline the calls did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Who contributes

- [Nate Silver](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nate-silver): 5 graded across 4 articles, 62.5% accuracy, score 63.13 (provisional)

## Where the evidence is, by kind of prediction

- [Race Winners](https://missedtakes.co/predictions/race-winner): 5 graded of 5 logged, averaging 60

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Page: https://missedtakes.co/outlets/risky-business-with-nate-silver-and-maria-konnikova
Their site: https://www.omnycontent.com/d/playlist/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/951120d9-cf6e-4224-93d7-b15c014dcea5/eb5e885e-6644-4680-aec4-b15c0150ffc0/podcast.rss