# Buffalo Bills: Pundits Overshot a 3-Point Patriots Win, and QB Calls Are Still Their Weak Spot | MissedTakes Daily

*Published 2026-10-13 — MissedTakes*

The Bills sit at 3-1, and we've tracked 1,204 calls tied to the club this season, enough volume to say something real about who gets Buffalo right and who doesn't.

## The Patriots loss everyone made bigger than it was

Buffalo beat New England 29-26 in Week 4, a 3-point game. But look at what pundits predicted beforehand. Among the graded score calls, the closest predictions (from Jeremy Pargo and Eric Moody, each landing on a 3-point Bills margin) scored the best of the group: 50 accuracy and a +8.71 skill swing above the naive baseline. Everyone else overshot, some by a lot. Nick Wright called it a 15-point blowout (28-13) and ended up with the week's worst grade on this game: 21.43 accuracy and a -43.57 skill hit.

![Every margin call beat the spread of reality except two](/posts/visuals/b97361af-d98c-46aa-8e6c-c0801e395b65.png)

Ten of eleven graded score picks on that game predicted a wider margin than what actually happened. That's not one bad call, it's a pattern across nearly the whole slate of Bills-Patriots scorers that week.

## Quarterback calls remain the shakiest part of the record

Across every position tied to Buffalo this season, QB calls, the ones about Josh Allen, carry the lowest accuracy: 46.6 across 37 graded calls. Compare that to tackle calls (97 accuracy on 20 graded) or safety calls (84.4 on 28 graded). Buffalo's skill-position and offensive-line predictions have graded out well; its quarterback predictions have not. With Allen as the engine of nearly every optimistic Bills forecast in our record, that gap matters more than most.

## Who actually earns trust on this team

Joe Marino has the largest sample of anyone covering Buffalo: 294 calls tracked, 150 graded, at 93 accuracy. Randy Gurzi isn't far behind at 89.3 accuracy across 56 graded calls. Below them the field gets considerably shakier.

![A wide gap separates the trusted Bills voices from the rest](/posts/visuals/8f189032-7d5e-45b7-ba4a-1dad69114156.png)

Nick Wright has made the most season win-total calls on this club of anyone we track, repeating an 11-6 or 12-5 forecast from March through October without wavering. Those calls haven't resolved yet since Buffalo's season is still being played, but his overall Bills accuracy (50.5 on 21 graded calls) gives little reason to treat the repetition as conviction worth extra weight.

## Monday night split

Before Buffalo's game at the Rams, pundits leaned toward Los Angeles: 22 picked the Rams, 11 picked the Bills, out of 33 who made a call. Predicted margins on the Rams side ranged from a 21-point call down to 1, with the median call across both sides a 3-point margin.

![More pundits leaned Rams than Bills before Monday night](/posts/visuals/5df06aaf-d52e-4af8-8ce9-d0bf29d8ebf3.png)

That game hadn't resolved in our record as of this writing, so there's no grade yet to report on it.

## Elsewhere: nearly 900 calls graded in a week

Away from Buffalo, the league produced 899 graded calls in the last seven days, with mock draft picks (251) and score predictions (222) making up the bulk of the volume. The week's best calls included a perfect 100-accuracy trade and signing forecast from Tucker Franklin and a full-season prediction column from John Breech that landed exactly on its Super Bowl pick. The week's worst calls were a cluster of season-long forecasts that missed everything, including entries from Bill Huber, Adam Chudwin, Douglas Clawson and two separate misses from Rich Eisen's early power rankings.

For the rest of the field's current standing, the [leaderboard](/nfl/leaderboard) has the full ranking.