# Raiders: Pundits Keep Picking Las Vegas to Win (For the Love of the Underdog) | MissedTakes Daily

*Published 2026-10-26 — MissedTakes*

*Drafted by a language model from MissedTakes' graded data, then reviewed and approved by Ben Garves before publishing.*

Pundits have picked the Las Vegas Raiders to pull off an outright upset four separate times this season, against New England, Kansas City, Buffalo and the Rams. All four losses graded zero accuracy for everyone who made the call. Las Vegas sits at 42 graded game-outcome calls this year, averaging 54.8 accuracy, a number held up by Week 1, when 16 different pundits correctly picked Las Vegas to beat a gutted Miami team.

## Who keeps picking the Raiders to win, and how has it gone?

Nineteen graded game-outcome calls on the Raiders this season have missed, against 23 that hit, and the wrong calls cluster around the same pattern: a pundit likes Las Vegas as the live underdog in a game the Raiders go on to lose outright. The clearest recent example came in the Week 7 game against the Rams. Four separate pundits backed Las Vegas to win at home, and the Rams won 35-21:

- [Hondo Carpenter](/pundits/hondo-carpenter), Oct. 20 and again Oct. 23: called the Rams "limping into Allegiant Stadium" and said an upset was "a true reality."
- John Middlekauff, Oct. 23: "I like the Raiders in this spot."
- Mitchell Eisenstein, Oct. 21: "I think the Raiders are going to win this game."
- Pat Gustavson, Oct. 20: picked Las Vegas outright.

All four scored zero. The same thing happened three other times this season: Chris Broussard, Nick Wright, Tyler Sullivan, Richard Sherman and Bobby Bones all picked the Raiders over the Patriots in Week 5 (Las Vegas lost 17-45); Garrett Podell and Steve Palazzolo picked the Raiders to upset Kansas City in Week 4 (Las Vegas lost 30-27); and Greg Jennings and Conor Orr picked the Raiders over Buffalo in Week 6 (Las Vegas lost 33-30).

Carpenter is a case worth separating out, because his 13 graded calls put him at No. 7 on our [overall pundit rankings](/nfl/leaderboard) with a MissedTakes Score of 46.67 (how much better than picking the home team a call did, with zero meaning no better). That score comes mainly from Raiders coverage: 11 of his 13 graded calls are roster-spot predictions on Las Vegas, where he is 87.5 accuracy. His two graded game-outcome calls on the Raiders, both backing upsets, are both zeros.

Nick Wright's Raiders record stretches back further, with a similar vibe. Across 15 graded Raiders calls this season and last, he averages 43.4 accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of -50.62. In 2025 he predicted the Raiders would win nine wins and reach the playoffs; Las Vegas finished with three wins. This season he backed the upset bid over New England that lost 17-45.

## Where have pundits been right on the Raiders?

The Raiders' quarterback situation is the one subject pundits have gotten right. Nine different pundits, including Warren Sharp, Carter Bahns, Tyler Sullivan and John Breech, correctly called Kirk Cousins the Week 1 starter over rookie No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza back in August, each scoring 100 accuracy. Across all depth-chart calls on the Raiders, the graded accuracy is 96.9 on 19 calls, the strongest number of any prediction type tied to this team. Mock-draft calls are a different story: Las Vegas draws 144 mock-draft takes, the largest volume of any Raiders-related category, with 127 graded calls averaging 83.5 accuracy.

The roster is not settled punditry, either. On Oct. 26, Jared Feinberg argued the Raiders have again become the NFL's worst rushing offense; the same day, Carter Landis predicted Maxx Crosby is on track for a third All-Pro selection. Neither call has been graded yet.

| Prediction type | Graded calls | Average accuracy |
| --- | ---: | ---: |
| Depth Chart Calls | 19 | 96.9 |
| Mock Draft Picks | 127 | 83.5 |
| Roster Spot Calls | 11 | 90.9 |
| Game Outcome Picks | 42 | 54.8 |
| Score Predictions | 10 | 58.1 |
| Season Win Totals | 10 | 10.0 |
| Playoff Picks | 8 | 0.0 |

![Four pundits backed a Raiders upset over the Rams, all four wrong](/posts/visuals/b37bacce-9067-40ab-95eb-7afc9a97f50b.png)

Playoff-berth calls on the Raiders have missed outright: all eight graded calls, stretching from 2024 through this year's four so far, scored zero. That includes three straight seasons of Nick Wright calling Las Vegas a playoff team, each graded zero after the Raiders finished with three wins in 2025.

## What was the week's biggest graded result?

The worst calls graded in the past seven days clustered on one team that is not the Raiders: four of the week's lowest-scoring calls were roster projections for the San Francisco 49ers. Brian Peacock's projected 53-man roster, Nathan Jahnke's fantasy-recap depth chart, Tom Jensen's cutdown projections and Jose Sanchez's post-opener roster reads each scored zero accuracy. All four graded calls carried the same -200 score, the lowest a call can grade. None of that touched the top of the [pundit rankings](/nfl/leaderboard), where Bryan DeArdo's 22 graded calls still average 92.49 accuracy for the season's best MissedTakes Score, 86.15.