# The House Call Flips: From All-Republican to 15-of-20 Democratic in a Month | MissedTakes Election Brief

*Published 2026-10-03 — MissedTakes*

A month ago, the handful of pundits willing to call House control outright were unanimous: three callers, three Republican picks. Today that field is twenty pundits deep, and fifteen of them say Democratic. The room didn't drift — it grew sevenfold and flipped wholesale. The Senate has moved less dramatically but in the same direction of growth: four callers a month ago, all Republican, are now twenty, with Republicans still ahead but by a much smaller margin (13 to 7) than the shutout it looked like in September.

![Chamber control calls, then and now](/posts/visuals/b513e007-c725-48f2-bdd8-fa4e1161d6e7.png)

Inside that House number, forecasters and talkers aren't reading the race the same way. Four of the five forecasters in the field — modelers and ratings outfits — call it Democratic, versus one Republican holdout. Talkers lean the same way but less lopsidedly, 11-4. On the Senate side, the forecasters are split dead even, two and two, while the talkers favor Republicans 11-5 — the widest gap between what the modelers say and what the talking heads say anywhere on the board this week.

Kyle Kondik, a forecaster with no settled record to measure him against yet, illustrates how fast that House number can move for one person. On September 15 he wrote: "Add it all up and you get the following: R+2-6 from redistricting, with the range being determined by the 4 Toss-ups that Democrats are defending." One day later, on September 16, his seat count read: "HOUSE: 210 at least Leans D, 203 at least Leans R, 22 Toss-ups" — a reversal from a Republican-leaning House to a Democratic-leaning one in 24 hours.

### Forecasters vs. talkers in the two biggest Senate tossups

Michigan and Texas are the most-called non-incumbent Senate races on the board, and in both, forecasters are more bullish on Democrats than the talkers calling the same race. In Michigan, both forecasters in the field pick [Abdul El-Sayed](/elections/candidates/abdul-el-sayed) against Mike Rogers (Polymarket has El-Sayed at 73 cents, VoteHub's polling average has him up 3.2 points); talkers split closer to even, five to four. In Texas, both forecasters back [James Talarico](/elections/candidates/james-talarico) over [Ken Paxton](/elections/candidates/ken-paxton) (Polymarket: 67 cents; VoteHub: Talarico by 2), while talkers actually lean the other way, five picks for Paxton against three for Talarico.

![Forecasters lean more Democratic than talkers in two tossup Senate races](/posts/visuals/e96aa4c4-77db-438d-bcbb-0df0c2bd3c23.png)

### One pundit, two directions in Alaska

[Ryan Girdusky](/pundits/ryan-girdusky), who carries a thin but perfect record so far (1 graded call, 100% accuracy, a MissedTakes Score of 102 — treat that as a lean, not a track record), changed his mind on Alaska's Senate race inside 48 hours. On September 28 he wrote: "I think Mary Patola is still going to lose in Alaska. I don't care what the polls say," picking the Republican. By September 30 he'd shifted to the specific candidate but kept the thought going: "And Mary Patola, for all Democrats' hopes, wishes, and dreams, She's been burning money pretty quickly... But I wouldn't be surprised if he pulls it out" — landing on [Dan S. Sullivan](/elections/candidates/dan-s-sullivan). That puts him alone against three other callers in the race — James Brooks, Lakshya Jain and Carl Cannon — who all have [Mary Peltola](/elections/candidates/mary-peltola) winning. Polymarket has Peltola at 72 cents with no listed price for Sullivan; VoteHub's average has her at 46.6%.

Two other pundits are standing alone this week. [Buck Sexton](/pundits/buck-sexton) is the only caller on New Hampshire's Senate race still picking John E. Sununu over [Chris Pappas](/elections/candidates/chris-pappas), against three others — worth noting given Sexton's record so far is a perfect 100% across 12 graded calls (MissedTakes Score 84.1). [Mike Murphy](/pundits/mike-murphy) is alone on Kansas for [Adam Hamilton](/elections/candidates/adam-hamilton) against three picking [Roger Marshall](/elections/candidates/roger-marshall), a lonelier bet given his record on the other end of the scale: 0% accuracy across four graded calls so far.

### On the record

The 2026 cycle now holds 232 calls from 50 pundits, 125 of them filed in the last week alone. Ten of those pundits carry a graded record so far. Browse the full field on the [election leaderboard](/elections/leaderboard) or start from the [US Elections hub](/elections).