# Chuck Todd Flips Texas Governor in Five Days — and Stands Alone Against the Market | MissedTakes Election Brief

*Published 2026-10-05 — MissedTakes*

The fastest reversal on the board this week belongs to Chuck Todd on the [2026 Texas gubernatorial election](/elections/races/2026-governor-tx) — though Todd carries no link on this site, so read the record for yourself through his quotes. On [September 30](/opinions/9650e726-620e-4304-b9d5-fa9928993030) he was still with the incumbent: "I really think the reason Greg Abbott might lose, he's still the favorite to win, but he might lose... My guess is they come up a little short with Abbott." Five days later, on [October 5](/opinions/1ba6cf6f-e752-465e-8faf-e4a8bce3b41f), he'd moved all the way to the challenger: "It's unbelievable what they've done. And I do think Babbitt loses. It's schools is why he loses."

That puts Todd against both the market and the only forecaster we've logged on this race. Polymarket prices Abbott at 73 cents to Gina Hinojosa's 28, and VoteHub's polling average has Abbott up 2.6 points through September 30. Kyle Kondik, the race's lone forecaster on our board, called it "Leans Republican" back on September 22 and hasn't moved since. With only two pundits on record in this race, Todd's flip means the talker side and the forecaster side now point in opposite directions.

### Alaska: the words soften even though the pick doesn't

[Ryan Girdusky](/pundits/ryan-girdusky) hasn't crossed party lines in the Alaska Senate race, but listen to how his confidence moved. On [September 28](/opinions/150f003a-8174-4a56-a615-719e021568d9): "I think Mary Patola is still going to lose in Alaska. I don't care what the polls say." Two days later, on [September 30](/opinions/1de8ad30-d7f0-426c-8e1b-0ab5bb283e6d), naming his candidate for the first time: "Mary Patola, for all Democrats' hopes, wishes, and dreams, she's been burning money pretty quickly... but I wouldn't be surprised if he pulls it out." That's a pundit landing on the same side while sounding a lot less sure of it.

Girdusky is also the only pundit we've tracked picking Dan S. Sullivan in Alaska — four others on our board have Mary Peltola, and Polymarket has her at 73 cents. He carries a 100% accuracy mark and a MissedTakesScore of 102 from last cycle, but that's a single graded call, so treat it as a lean rather than a track record.

### The forecasters don't agree with each other

Thirteen of 13 pundits we've logged call the House for Democrats, forecasters and talkers alike — about as close to unanimous as this board gets. The Senate is a different story. Among the two forecasters on our board who've called Senate control, G. Elliott Morris has Democrats favored ("up into the seventies," meaning roughly a 73-in-100 chance), while Lakshya Jain — who carries a rough 49.6% accuracy mark across 59 graded calls last cycle — has it Republican. Talkers lean Republican too, 6 of 9. So the room's lean and the forecasters' internal split are pointing different directions at once.
![Control of the Senate: how the room splits](/posts/visuals/6636d1c5-2292-4b79-9483-769bdbf3ff89.png)

The same two forecasters don't even agree on the national House popular vote. Morris put out "about D+9" on October 4; David Nir, also a forecaster, had Democrats up 13 points the day before. A four-point gap between the two forecasters measuring the same number is worth remembering next time either cites it as settled.

Elsewhere, a couple of lone calls are worth flagging. Buck Sexton is the only pundit we've tracked picking John E. Sununu in New Hampshire, against three colleagues on Chris Pappas, Polymarket pricing Pappas at 87 cents, and a 7-point VoteHub lead for Pappas — but Sexton brings a 100% accuracy mark across 12 graded calls from last cycle, so it's not a reckless outlier. Mike Murphy's lone pick of Adam Hamilton over Roger Marshall in Kansas comes with the opposite history: a 0% accuracy mark on four graded calls last cycle.

![Who's making the most calls this cycle](/posts/visuals/8e8da639-5b98-4b8c-a9a8-b9599dd60792.png)

### On the record

The 2026 cycle holds 250 calls from 48 pundits, with 134 of those arriving in the past week alone and five new since our last brief. Kyle Kondik and G. Elliott Morris remain the cycle's most prolific voices, with 53 and 42 calls respectively. None of this cycle's calls have been graded yet — the board only settles those once races are decided. Browse the full [election leaderboard](/elections/leaderboard) or the [US Elections hub](/elections) to see where everyone stands.