# Chuck Todd Gives Up on Abbott, and Girdusky Hardens a Lonely Alaska Call | MissedTakes Election Brief

*Published 2026-10-06 — MissedTakes*

The week's single clearest reversal belongs to **Chuck Todd**, who spent late September describing Greg Abbott as Texas's probable governor and ended it picking his opponent. On September 30 he hedged toward Abbott: "My guess is they come up a little short with Abbott, but let's say Abbott loses. ... he's still the favorite to win, but he might lose." Five days later, on October 5, he was over the line entirely: "It's unbelievable what they've done. And I do think Babbitt loses. It's schools is why he loses" — naming [Gina Hinojosa](/elections/candidates/gina-hinojosa) as the winner over [Greg Abbott](/elections/candidates/greg-abbott) in the [Texas governor's race](/elections/races/2026-governor-tx).

The flip is bigger than one race for Todd specifically: he has called [James Talarico](/elections/candidates/james-talarico) the winner of the [Texas Senate race](/elections/races/2026-senate-tx) in every one of his calls since September 16, including again on October 5. Put the two picks together and Todd is now on record for a clean Democratic sweep atop the Texas ticket — a position he didn't hold four weeks ago.

Not everyone is moving toward the consensus pick. In Alaska, four of five pundits on record have [Mary Peltola](/elections/candidates/mary-peltola) beating [Dan S. Sullivan](/elections/candidates/dan-s-sullivan); [Ryan Girdusky](/pundits/ryan-girdusky) is the lone holdout, and he's still there after supposedly changing his mind. On September 28 he backed the generic Republican line: "I think Mary Patola is still going to lose in Alaska. I don't care what the polls say." Two days later, naming Sullivan directly, his confidence had visibly eroded: "Mary Patola, for all Democrats' hopes, wishes, and dreams, She's been burning money pretty quickly... But I wouldn't be surprised if he pulls it out." Same side, much softer footing — and Girdusky's record going in is a single graded call, which he got right (a 100% mark and a +102 MissedTakes Score), too thin to call a trend either way. He's not the only one standing apart this week: [Buck Sexton](/pundits/buck-sexton) is alone on John E. Sununu in New Hampshire against three other callers, and [Mike Murphy](/pundits/mike-murphy) is alone on Adam Hamilton in Kansas against three others, carrying a 0% mark on his four graded calls so far.

Zoom out to the Senate overall and the room is closer than the House. Fourteen of fourteen pundits calling [House control](/elections) say Democratic, no dissent at all. [Senate control](/elections) splits 7 Republican to 5 Democratic among 12 callers — and the forecasters inside that number don't agree with each other, one for each side. The identified forecaster on the Democratic side, G. Elliott Morris, has been nudging his number up through the week: a "7-in-10 chance" on September 28, "73%" on October 1, "up into the 70s" by October 3 — a drift, not a swing, but a drift in one direction. Talkers lean Republican, 6 to 4.

![Senate control: 7 pundits say Republican, 5 Democratic](/posts/visuals/6c97dfb6-6bd1-4b7b-b011-20575f695a27.png)

New to the board this week: Carol Markowitz, calling both chambers Democratic on her first calls on record (October 6), and Chris Cillizza, who filed six new race calls the same day, including Troy Jackson in Maine and Rob Sand in Iowa.

### On the record

The 2026 cycle now holds 264 calls from 51 pundits, 127 of them filed in the past week alone and 14 new since our last brief. None are graded yet — the season hasn't answered any of them. For the full board, see the [election leaderboard](/elections/leaderboard) and the [US Elections hub](/elections).