# Buck Sexton Flips on Michigan as the Senate Room Splits Between Forecasters and Talkers | MissedTakes Election Brief

*Published 2026-10-07 — MissedTakes*

The week's reversal came from [Buck Sexton](/pundits/buck-sexton), who carries a small but perfect record so far (12 graded calls, 100% accuracy, a 84.1 MissedTakes Score, though the sample is still provisional). On September 17 he told listeners, "I think the GOP wins in Texas and Michigan. It will be super close in Michigan." By October 6 he'd turned: "I think we lose in Michigan. ... I just think that Michigan race is going to be very tough for us." His new call lines up with where the room already sits — 9 of 12 pundits on the race, including both forecasters tracking it, have Abdul El-Sayed over Mike Rogers — and with the outside numbers: Polymarket prices El-Sayed at 73 cents, and VoteHub's seven-poll average has him up 3.6 points.

![Michigan Senate: who the room calls](/posts/visuals/94004bbb-7d66-4e49-acb1-83ac93c564d4.png)

In South Carolina, [Tom Bevan](/pundits/tom-bevan) made the same kind of turn in the same week. On September 28 he said of the race, "he has, Darlene Graham up one point in South Carolina... Still, it's hard to imagine that it will vote for a Democrat" — while naming Lindsey Graham as his pick. By October 6 he'd corrected course entirely: "Is it possible she loses? It's possible, but it's not very likely... Even in that kind of a year, South Carolina would be a reach." Bevan's record is just four graded calls so far, but all four have landed (100% accuracy, provisional). His flip leaves the field unanimous — six callers, all on Darline Graham — even though the outside numbers tell two different stories: VoteHub's lone poll has her up just 1 point, while Polymarket prices her Democratic opponent at only 17 cents.

Not every reversal has a track record behind it yet. Chuck Todd, who doesn't carry a graded record on this site, moved on the Texas governor's race inside a week. On September 30 he said, "I really think the reason Greg Abbott might lose, he's still the favorite to win, but he might lose... My guess is they come up a little short with Abbott." By October 5: "It's unbelievable what they've done. And I do think Babbitt loses. It's schools is why he loses." Todd is also simply the busiest voice on the site this week — 28 of his 51 cycle calls came in the last seven days, more than any other pundit tracked.

Alaska is the week's holdout. Six pundits, including two forecasters, have Mary Peltola; [Ryan Girdusky](/pundits/ryan-girdusky) is the only one on record for Dan S. Sullivan, writing on September 30, "Mary Patola, for all Democrats' hopes, wishes, and dreams, she's been burning money pretty quickly... But I wouldn't be surprised if he pulls it out." That's against a Polymarket price of 74 cents for Peltola. Girdusky's own record shows a perfect mark so far, but it rests on a single graded call — enough to flag as a lean, not a pattern.

The bigger divide sits in the fight for Senate control. Overall the field leans Republican, 9 calls to 5 — but split the room by role and the two forecasters tracking the question are tied, one apiece, while the 12 talkers go 8-4 for Republicans.

![Senate control: the full room](/posts/visuals/c7b0c6f1-13ef-401e-b7b0-69b91d6d35d3.png)

House control shows no such tension: all 17 callers, forecasters and talkers alike, have Democrats in the majority.

### On the record

The 2026 cycle now holds 323 calls from 53 pundits, including 52 logged since last week's brief — none of them graded yet, since nothing has voted. For the full rundown, see the [Election leaderboard](/elections/leaderboard) and the [US Elections hub](/elections).