# The Room Is Unanimous on Georgia, But Iowa's Forecasters Can't Agree With Each Other | MissedTakes Election Brief

*Published 2026-10-10 — MissedTakes*

Fourteen pundits have made a call on Georgia's Senate race this cycle, and all fourteen picked [Jon Ossoff](/elections/candidates/jon-ossoff). That's the full field, forecasters and talkers together: the two forecasters tracked on the race both have him winning, and so do all twelve talkers. The newest entries came October 9, when Mike Warren and Doug Sosnik each added an Ossoff call, and neither broke any new ground by doing it.

The outside numbers agree. Polymarket prices Ossoff at 97 cents to Mike Collins' 3. VoteHub's average, built from three polls through October 3, has Ossoff ahead by 9.6 points, 53.5% to 43.9%. The closest anyone has come to disputing the size of that lead is Carl Cannon, who put it at "eight or 10 points" on October 9, essentially in line with the polling average. Cannon's overall record from last cycle reads well (93.3% accuracy across 20 graded calls), but his specific margin calls were shakier than his winner picks, 65.6% accuracy on the three margin calls graded against a perfect 100% on sixteen race-winner calls, and his record is still provisional at this sample size. David Nir, who added his own Ossoff pick on October 8, carries a deeper line: 96.3% accuracy across 26 graded calls, with a limited-confidence tag on the total.

![Georgia Senate: a unanimous room](/posts/visuals/e0549971-de83-4e20-9972-ffe897dd2bb4.png)

Iowa's Senate race looks nothing like that. Seven pundits have [Ashley Hinson](/elections/candidates/ashley-hinson) winning: Chuck Todd (October 6), Josh Holmes twice (September 24 and 29, 82.2% accuracy on 26 graded calls), Ryan Girdusky twice (September 21 and 28, 63.6% on 16 graded calls), Justin Robert Young (September 22, 91.7% on 7 graded calls), Gabe Fleisher (September 22, a thin 25% on 3 graded calls) and Clay Travis (September 17, 71.1% on 55 graded calls). The forecaster Kyle Kondik also called it for Hinson on September 16, rating it "Leans Republican" on a record so far built from a single graded call.

Against all of that stands David Nir, who called [Josh Turek](/elections/candidates/josh-turek) on October 8, the only Turek pick in the race and the only disagreement between the two forecasters tracked here. Nir's call doesn't match the market: Polymarket has Hinson at 57 cents to Turek's 44. It does match VoteHub's polling average, which puts Turek ahead by 1.6 points, 46.8% to 45.2%, through six polls. A similar pattern shows up in Nebraska, where Ari Weitzman is the lone pundit tracked on Dan Osborn against three callers elsewhere, though his graded record there is thin enough (6 calls, 20% accuracy, provisional) that it's a position worth watching rather than a signal to lean on.

![Iowa Senate: the forecasters split, the talkers don't](/posts/visuals/669873a3-f965-41e8-96a8-efec37ab5330.png)

### On the record

The 2026 cycle holds 416 calls from 70 pundits, with 171 of them made in the past week and 92 new since our last brief. Browse the complete rundown on the [Election leaderboard](/elections/leaderboard) or see [every race pundits have called](/elections/races) at the [US Elections hub](/elections).