# Maine's Only Forecaster Breaks From Seven Talkers, Backing Collins | MissedTakes Election Brief

*Published 2026-10-18 — MissedTakes*

*Drafted by a language model from MissedTakes' graded data, then reviewed and approved by Ben Garves before publishing.*

## Maine: the talkers like Collins, everyone else likes Jackson

Eleven pundits we track have called Maine's Senate race, and seven of them have Susan Collins winning. But strip out the talkers and look at who actually models these things, and the picture flips. G. Elliott Morris is the only forecaster in the field, and on October 1 he put the race as "leaning more towards the Democrats," backing [Troy Jackson](/elections/candidates/troy-jackson). He's the entire forecaster side of this race: one caller, one pick, and it isn't Collins.

The outside numbers back him up. Polymarket has Jackson at 60 cents to Collins' 42 as of October 15. VoteHub's average of four polls through October 5 has Jackson ahead 49.8% to 47%, a 2.8-point edge. So the field's majority pick is a Republican who both the market and the polling average have trailing.

The Collins side of the ledger is almost entirely talkers. [Ben Shapiro](/pundits/ben-shapiro) called her the winner twice, on October 9 and again October 14, no change, just a repeated pick. He carries 81 graded calls from the last cycle at 63.9% accuracy (a MissedTakes Score of 25.3). [Buck Sexton](/pundits/buck-sexton) has also called Collins twice, on September 17 and October 6, and his record from last cycle reads thinner: 59.9% accuracy on 25 graded calls, a score of 11.0. [Justin Robert Young](/pundits/justin-robert-young) picked Collins on October 6; his own record is still provisional at just 7 graded calls (91.7% accuracy, score 27.8), and [Ryan Grim](/pundits/ryan-grim) picked her October 5 off a similarly thin 8-call sample (76.5% accuracy, score 66.8).

On the Jackson side, besides Morris, [Isaac Saul](/pundits/isaac-saul) picked him on October 8 carrying a sturdier mark from last cycle, 79.4% accuracy across 63 graded calls (score 46.6). Chris Cillizza also named Jackson on October 6, framing it as "I think she's an underdog" about Collins, he doesn't carry a graded record with us yet.

## Senate control: forecasters split down the middle, talkers lean right

The same forecaster/talker gap shows up at the chamber level. Of the 19 pundits who've called control of the Senate, 12 say Republican and 7 say Democratic. But the two forecasters in that field are split exactly down the middle: [Lakshya Jain](/pundits/lakshya-jain) picked Republican on September 28 (he carries 170 graded calls at 64.0% accuracy, score 23.6), while Morris has repeatedly called it for Democrats, most recently saying on October 1 that "Democrats have a 73% chance at the Senate." The 17 talkers break hard the other way, 11 for Republican against 6 for Democratic.
![Maine's lone forecaster lands on the opposite side of seven talkers](/posts/visuals/9ecb7cbe-6eff-443c-9055-d402fe91bdf6.png)

## Who's posting the most

Two pundits dominate this week's volume. Chuck Todd logged 18 calls in the past seven days alone, part of 76 total calls this cycle, hitting a dozen different races on October 14, calling Virginia's 5th District "probably stays Republican," going "bullish on Kansas Senate" for Adam Hamilton, and "bearish for Iowa Senate" on Ashley Hinson, among others. He doesn't carry a graded record with us yet. Ben Shapiro also posted heavily: all 16 of his calls this cycle arrived in the past week, including both of his Maine calls above.
![Senate control forecasters split 1-1 while talkers lean Republican](/posts/visuals/96af215d-5c5f-42ad-ac85-ed1997040c68.png)

## On the record

We're tracking 458 calls from 75 pundits so far this cycle, 73 of them in the past week alone. None of it is graded yet, that comes after votes are counted on November 3. For the complete picture, see the [election leaderboard](/elections/leaderboard) and the [US Elections hub](/elections).