# Michigan's Senate Field Goes 4x in a Month, and Rogers Just Picked Up a Fourth Backer | MissedTakes Election Brief

*Published 2026-10-22 — MissedTakes*

*Drafted by a language model from MissedTakes' graded data, then reviewed and approved by Ben Garves before publishing.*

## Who's moved on Michigan's Senate race?

Twenty pundits have now called Michigan's Senate race, up from just five callers four weeks ago, and [Abdul El-Sayed](/elections/candidates/abdul-el-sayed) still leads [Mike Rogers](/elections/candidates/mike-rogers-mi) 14 calls to 6. Both of Michigan's forecasters back El-Sayed, while talkers split 12-6 for him. The market and the polls tell a tighter story than the field does: Polymarket prices El-Sayed at 70 cents to Rogers' 30, and VoteHub's four-poll average (through Oct. 18) has El-Sayed up just 47.3% to 44.3%, a 3-point edge.

The newest call came from [Steve Deace](/pundits/steve-deace) on Oct. 21, picking Rogers. Deace carries a graded record of 54.1% accuracy and a 2.2 MissedTakes Score across 70 graded calls, a mixed mark that leaves him closer to a coin flip than a sharp read. He joins [Ben Shapiro](/pundits/ben-shapiro) (63.9% accuracy, 25.3 score, 81 graded calls) and [Erick-Woods Erickson](/pundits/erick-woods-erickson) (79.8% accuracy, 45.9 score, 68 graded calls) on the Rogers side. On the other side, [Buck Sexton](/pundits/buck-sexton) switched to El-Sayed on Oct. 6, as we've reported; he carries a 59.9% accuracy and an 11 score from 25 graded calls.

![Michigan's forecasters are unanimous for El-Sayed](/posts/visuals/6e98220a-d7c3-44a6-bf8e-23b7a40bbf29.png)

## Who stands alone on Alaska and New Hampshire?

Two pundits are the only ones holding their specific pick in Alaska, and a third is alone in New Hampshire. [Ryan Girdusky](/pundits/ryan-girdusky) is the only caller on [Dan S. Sullivan](/elections/candidates/dan-s-sullivan) in Alaska, against seven callers favoring [Mary Peltola](/elections/candidates/mary-peltola) or a generic Republican; his graded record stands at 63.6% accuracy and a 28.2 score, though with only 16 graded calls it's still a provisional read. Ben Shapiro is the lone caller on a generic Republican in the same race, against seven others, with his 81-call record above.

In New Hampshire, Buck Sexton is the only caller on [John E. Sununu](/elections/candidates/john-e-sununu), against six callers elsewhere in the race, one of them Chuck Todd, who picked [Chris Pappas](/elections/candidates/chris-pappas) on Oct. 21. Sexton's graded record (59.9% accuracy, 11 score, 25 graded calls) sits near the middle of the pack.

## Who's calling the most races this cycle?

Chuck Todd has made more calls than anyone this cycle, 93 in total and 17 in the past week alone, more than five times the next-most-active pundit's weekly pace. He has no graded record yet from a prior cycle. Here's how the top five by call volume compare:

| Pundit | Calls this cycle | Calls this week | Graded record |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Chuck Todd | 93 | 17 | none yet |
| [Kyle Kondik](/pundits/kyle-kondik) | 69 | 0 | 100% accuracy, 0 score (1 graded call) |
| G. Elliott Morris | 44 | 1 | none yet |
| Ryan Girdusky | 30 | 7 | 63.6% accuracy, 28.2 score (16 graded) |
| Erick-Woods Erickson | 25 | 6 | 79.8% accuracy, 45.9 score (68 graded) |

Todd's 17 calls this week alone included fresh picks on Ohio's governor race ([Amy Acton](/elections/candidates/amy-acton)), Wyoming's Senate and House races ([Cynthia Lummis](/elections/candidates/cynthia-lummis) and [Chuck Gray](/elections/candidates/chuck-gray)), and Massachusetts' governor race ([Maura Healey](/elections/candidates/maura-healey)), all on Oct. 22.

![The lone callers carry three different track records](/posts/visuals/90a55ae6-6f1f-4f4c-969d-f7a750531280.png)

## On the record

We're tracking 522 calls from 86 pundits this cycle, none yet graded with 12 days left before Election Day. The full picture is on the [election leaderboard](/elections/leaderboard) and the [US Elections hub](/elections).