# Pundits Move Toward Rogers in Michigan as the Senate Picture Splits | MissedTakes Election Week

*Published 2026-10-26 — MissedTakes*

*Drafted by a language model from MissedTakes' graded data, then reviewed and approved by Ben Garves before publishing.*

## How many calls came in during the week of October 19-26?

Pundits filed 106 calls in the week we tracked, out of 593 on record this cycle from 93 pundits, 12 of them forecasters rather than talkers. Race-winner picks made up most of the week's volume (75 of the 106), with chamber-control calls (19), seat-count calls (11) and a single race-margin call filling out the rest. With [Election Day](/elections) eight days out, the volume is shifting from who-controls-what toward race-by-race detail: seat counts alone drew 11 new calls in a week that saw zero on the national House popular vote.

## Where does each Senate and House race stand, and how did it move over the week?

The [2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan](/elections/races/2026-senate-mi) moved the most of any race we track with four or more callers: [Abdul El-Sayed](/elections/candidates/abdul-el-sayed)'s share of the 24 callers fell to 58.3%, down from 73.7% of 19 callers four weeks earlier, as [Mike Rogers](/elections/candidates/mike-rogers-mi) picked up five new callers in that stretch. Control of the House stayed where it was, with 34 of 34 callers on Democratic. Control of the Senate ticked toward Democrats in share even as Republicans kept the plurality, 54.2% of 24 callers against 60.0% of 20 a month earlier. Kansas moved differently: Roger Marshall's share rose from 77.8% to 88.9% as callers who had been on Adam Hamilton came off him.

![Michigan's field share for El-Sayed drops 15 points in a week](/posts/visuals/598b67cf-6f16-4773-adc2-a66185f18c98.png)

| Race | Leading pick | Share this week | Share four weeks ago |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Control of the House | Democratic | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed | 58.3 | 73.7 |
| Control of the Senate | Republican | 54.2 | 60.0 |
| Texas Senate | Paxton | 60.0 | 64.7 |
| Georgia Senate | Ossoff | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| North Carolina Senate | Cooper | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Ohio Senate special | Brown | 80.0 | 83.3 |
| Maine Senate | Collins | 64.3 | 63.6 |
| Iowa Senate | Hinson | 81.8 | 90.0 |
| South Carolina Senate | Graham | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| New Hampshire Senate | Pappas | 88.9 | 85.7 |
| Kansas Senate | Marshall | 88.9 | 77.8 |

## Where do forecasters and talkers disagree?

Control of the Senate is where the two groups split hardest: the three forecasters calling it lean Democratic 2 to 1, while the 21 talkers lean Republican 12 to 9. Texas shows the same pattern in sharper form. All three forecasters on the race, including [Kyle Kondik](/pundits/kyle-kondik), have [James Talarico](/elections/candidates/james-talarico) winning, while the 17 talkers go 12 to 5 for [Ken Paxton](/elections/candidates/ken-paxton). On Michigan, forecasters are unanimous for El-Sayed, 2 of 2, while the 22 talkers split closer, 12 to 10.

## How does the field compare with the market and the polls?

On Michigan, [Polymarket](/elections/races/2026-senate-mi) prices El-Sayed at 69 cents to Rogers' 32, a wider gap than VoteHub's polling average shows: three polls through October 22 have El-Sayed ahead by 0.3 points, 47.0 to 46.7. The pundit field's 58.3% share for El-Sayed sits closer to that tight polling margin than to the market's price. Texas shows the reverse mismatch: the market has Talarico at 65 cents and VoteHub's 10-poll average through October 21 has him up 2.3 points, 48.6 to 46.3, yet talkers favor Paxton 70.6% of the time. In Kansas, the market (62 cents for Marshall) and a single VoteHub poll through October 14 (Marshall by 1 point, 48 to 47) both read closer than the field's 88.9% consensus for Marshall.

## Who changed a Senate control call this week, in opposite directions?

[Steve Deace](/pundits/steve-deace), who carries 70 graded calls this cycle at 54.1% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 2.2, said on [September 28](/opinions/7a435146-a771-4228-a2b5-828093a6a2db) that "Democrats will come out of this with a fifty one forty nine senate majority." By [October 23](/opinions/9bb48522-c856-4cbe-b26a-077e15db750f) he had moved to "Republicans maintain a small majority in the US senate." [Isaac Saul](/pundits/isaac-saul) moved in the reverse direction on the same question. On [October 8](/opinions/5f35dab2-899a-4a32-b9a8-648b77559fd3) he said "I think Republicans are gonna hold the senate," then on [October 22](/opinions/c0e8416a-5311-4a21-aab3-856d35e94452): "That's the senate majority for Democrats, 51 right there." Saul's 63 graded calls this cycle run 79.4% accuracy with a score of 46.6, including 80.4% on race winners specifically and 66.7% on 12 graded control-of-Congress calls.

Chuck Todd also reversed on Kansas. On October 6 he said "I'd rather be Hamilton than Marshall at this point in time," calling Hamilton the favorite. By October 22 he had Republicans holding, saying Democrats "come up short in Kansas, short in Mississippi, short in South Carolina." Todd filed 36 calls in the week alone, the most of any pundit we track, though he carries no graded record here.

## Who is standing alone this week?

Mike Murphy is the only caller on Adam Hamilton in Kansas against 8 others on the race, a position that looks lonelier now that Todd has left it; Murphy's 12 graded calls run 17.3% accuracy and a score of -8.1. In New Hampshire, Buck Sexton is the only one on John E. Sununu against 8 callers on Chris Pappas, with Sexton's own record at 59.9% accuracy on 25 graded calls. Alaska has two separate holdouts: Ryan Girdusky on Dan S. Sullivan by name and Ben Shapiro on the Republican side generally, each against 8 other callers; Girdusky's 16 graded calls run 63.6% accuracy, Shapiro's 81 graded calls run 63.9%. Ari Weitzman stands alone on Dan Osborn in Nebraska against 4 other callers, on a record of 6 graded calls at 20.0% accuracy.

## On the record

None of this cycle's calls have graded results yet, with Election Day eight days away. The full set of calls behind these numbers sits on the [US Elections hub](/elections) and the [Election leaderboard](/elections/leaderboard), race by race and pundit by pundit.