# Pundits Move Toward Talarico in Texas While the Senate Field Tilts Republican | MissedTakes Election Week

*Published 2026-11-04 — MissedTakes*

*Drafted by a language model from MissedTakes' graded data, then reviewed and approved by Ben Garves before publishing.*

## How many calls did pundits add this week?

Pundits logged 136 calls between Oct. 26 and Nov. 2, 2026, the last full week before Election Day, pushing the 2026 cycle total to 735 calls from 103 pundits. Of this week's calls, 82 were race-winner picks, 29 addressed control of Congress, 11 were seat-count calls, 10 were race-margin calls and 4 covered the national House popular vote. Since the last roundup on Oct. 26, 148 calls have come in overall, with 136 of them falling inside this one week.

Three pundits accounted for much of the volume: Chuck Todd added 28 calls this week (141 for the cycle), Harry Enten added 12 (13 for the cycle) and Steve Deace added 11 (20 for the cycle).

![This week added 136 calls across five call types](/posts/visuals/2df5b649-cde3-4a81-9702-92199e630f8c.png)

## Where does each race stand, and how did the field move?

Twelve races and chamber contests drew four or more callers this week, and the Texas Senate seat moved the most. Ken Paxton's share of callers fell from 60.0% (12 of 20) four weeks ago to 54.5% (12 of 22) now, as [James Talarico](/elections/candidates/james-talarico) picked up two more callers. The [Ohio Senate special election](/elections/races/2026-senate-oh-special) moved too: Sherrod Brown's share dropped from 80.0% (12 of 15) to 75.0% (12 of 16) as Jon Husted gained a caller. Control of the Senate moved toward Republicans: their share of callers rose from 54.2% (13 of 24) to 57.7% (15 of 26).

![Texas is the field's tightest call](/posts/visuals/ca431ae1-4073-45d2-a47d-c7379ac7a04c.png)

| Race | Leading pick | Callers | Share | Poll margin (VoteHub) | Market price (Polymarket) |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Control of the House | Democratic | 41 of 41 | 100.0% | n/a | n/a |
| [North Carolina Senate](/elections/races/2026-senate-nc) | [Roy Cooper](/elections/candidates/roy-cooper) | 17 of 17 | 100.0% | Cooper +11.1 | Cooper 98¢ |
| [Georgia Senate](/elections/races/2026-senate-ga) | [Jon Ossoff](/elections/candidates/jon-ossoff) | 16 of 16 | 100.0% | Ossoff +9.5 | Ossoff 97¢ |
| [South Carolina Senate](/elections/races/2026-senate-sc) | [Darline Graham](/elections/candidates/darline-graham) | 13 of 13 | 100.0% | Graham +2.5 | Andrews 32¢ |
| [Minnesota Senate](/elections/races/2026-senate-mn) | [Peggy Flanagan](/elections/candidates/peggy-flanagan) | 12 of 12 | 100.0% | Flanagan +3.0 | Flanagan 95¢ |
| [Kansas Senate](/elections/races/2026-senate-ks) | [Roger Marshall](/elections/candidates/roger-marshall) | 10 of 11 | 90.9% | Hamilton +3.9 | Hamilton 61¢ |
| [Iowa Senate](/elections/races/2026-senate-ia) | [Ashley Hinson](/elections/candidates/ashley-hinson) | 10 of 12 | 83.3% | Hinson +0.1 | Hinson 54¢ |
| Ohio Senate special | [Sherrod Brown](/elections/candidates/sherrod-brown) | 12 of 16 | 75.0% | Brown +3.9 | Brown 73¢ |
| [Maine Senate](/elections/races/2026-senate-me) | [Susan Collins](/elections/candidates/susan-collins) | 11 of 17 | 64.7% | Jackson +4.3 | Jackson 75¢ |
| [Michigan Senate](/elections/races/2026-senate-mi) | [Abdul El-Sayed](/elections/candidates/abdul-el-sayed) | 18 of 29 | 62.1% | El-Sayed +5.3 | El-Sayed 82¢ |
| Control of the Senate | Republican | 15 of 26 | 57.7% | n/a | n/a |
| [Texas Senate](/elections/races/2026-senate-tx) | [Ken Paxton](/elections/candidates/ken-paxton) | 12 of 22 | 54.5% | Talarico +3.1 | Talarico 76¢ |

## Where do forecasters and talkers disagree?

On control of the Senate, the two groups lead with different parties: the 3 forecasters split 2 Democratic to 1 Republican, while the 23 talkers go 14 Republican to 9 Democratic. Texas shows the same split in reverse: all 3 forecasters who called the race picked Talarico, while the 19 talkers favor Paxton, 12 to 7. Maine splits the same way: the single forecaster who called it picked Troy Jackson, while the 16 talkers favor Susan Collins, 11 to 5. In Iowa, the 2 forecasters split evenly between Hinson and Josh Turek, while the 10 talkers back Hinson, 9 to 1.

## How do the pundits compare to the market and the polls?

Three of the twelve fields pick a candidate trailing in VoteHub's polling average. In Kansas, 10 of 11 callers favor Marshall, who trails Adam Hamilton by 3.9 points in a 5-poll average and whose opponent Polymarket prices at 61 cents. In Maine, 11 of 17 callers favor Collins, who trails Jackson by 4.3 points, with Polymarket pricing Jackson at 75 cents. In Texas, 12 of 22 callers favor Paxton, who trails Talarico by 3.1 points, with Polymarket pricing Talarico at 76 cents. Everywhere else the pundit majority and the polling leader agree, including Michigan, where the field's 62.1% for El-Sayed sits below both his 82-cent market price and his 5.3-point polling lead.

## Which pundits changed their minds this week?

Four pundits reversed a call on the same race within the past month. On Senate control, [Steve Deace](/pundits/steve-deace) said on Sept. 28, "Democrats will come out of this with a fifty one forty nine senate majority," then had flipped his pick to Republican control by Oct. 26. In the same race, [Isaac Saul](/pundits/isaac-saul) swapped from Republican to Democratic: "I think Republicans are gonna hold the senate" on Oct. 8, then "I've started to predict Democrats will take back the Senate on election night" on Oct. 28. On the Ohio Senate special, [Buck Sexton](/pundits/buck-sexton) had Sherrod Brown as late as Oct. 28, then on Oct. 31 told listeners "you're going to intercept it from Sherrod Brown on Tuesday... you're going to run it home for the touchdown" for Husted. On Kansas, Chuck Todd went from "I think Hamilton is the favorite now" on Oct. 6 to writing that Democrats "come up short in Kansas" on Oct. 22.

## Which calls stand alone?

Three pundits are calling a race against a field of four or more who picked the other side. [Mike Murphy](/pundits/mike-murphy) has Adam Hamilton winning Kansas against 10 callers who picked Marshall; his last graded record covers 12 calls at 17.3% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of -8.1. [Ben Shapiro](/pundits/ben-shapiro) has the Republican holding Alaska against 9 callers who picked the other party, against a last-cycle record of 81 graded calls at 63.9% accuracy and a score of 25.3. [Ari Weitzman](/pundits/ari-weitzman) has Dan Osborn winning Nebraska against 4 callers who picked the other side, with a last-cycle record of 6 graded calls at 20% accuracy and a score of 20.4.

## How has Isaac Saul's record held up?

Isaac Saul has filed 25 calls this cycle, spread across ten Senate races and both chamber-control questions, including a seat-count call putting the Senate at 52 Democratic seats on Oct. 22. His last graded record runs to 63 calls across 23 articles: 79.4% accuracy overall and a MissedTakesScore of 46.6, where a score above zero means the call beat picking the favorite. Broken out by type, his 46 graded race-winner calls scored 80.4% accuracy, his 12 chamber-control calls scored 66.7%, his 4 seat-count calls scored 65.0%, and his single graded margin call scored 67.0%.

## On the record

Every race above, along with the rest of the 2026 slate, sits on the [US Elections hub](/elections), and every pundit's running record is on the [election leaderboard](/elections/leaderboard). None of this week's 136 calls carries a grade yet. Election Day is Nov. 3, 2026, one day after this week's calls closed.