# 49ers 23, Commanders 17: Every Pundit Had San Francisco, None Saw It This Close

*Published 2026-10-20 — MissedTakes*

*Drafted by a language model from MissedTakes' graded data, then reviewed and approved by Ben Garves before publishing.*

San Francisco beat Washington 23-17 on Monday night, and every one of the 19 pundits we tracked for this game picked the 49ers to win it. The 27 graded calls this game settled, winner picks and score predictions, averaged 94 out of 100 in accuracy. Where the field actually missed wasn't the winner. It was how lopsided they expected it to be: nobody who named a score had San Francisco winning by less than eight points, and the final margin was six.

## Did any pundit take the Commanders?

No. The split for this game runs 19-0: every tracked voice backed the 49ers, and none sided with Washington. That's a unanimous call that turned out right, which under our scoring is closer to a shrug than a story. Picking the home, undefeated team earned accuracy but zero skill above the baseline, since taking the home side every week is exactly what that baseline already does.

![Not a Single Tracked Pick Backed Washington](/posts/visuals/c3dfec0a-7f22-4daa-80ee-c050032870ea.png)

Henry Brown's preview said as much: "The undefeated 49ers are favored to make quick work of the uncoordinated Commanders on Monday Night Football in Week 6." [Ryan Wormeli](/pundits/ryan-wormeli) went further, saying on air he expected the Niners to win "by three touchdowns" and to "smash the Commanders." San Francisco won, but not nearly by that much.

## Whose score call came closest?

[Jordan Dajani](/pundits/jordan-dajani)'s was. His pick of "49ers 28-20 over Commanders" had a 49ers margin of eight, missing the actual six-point margin by just two points and grading out at 95.24 accuracy with a +15.50 skill score, the best mark of any call tied to this game. [Pete Prisco](/pundits/pete-prisco) was next closest, calling "49ers 30-21" for a nine-point margin (missed by three, +11.41 skill), followed by [Tyler Sullivan](/pundits/tyler-sullivan) at 30-20 (10-point margin, missed by four, +7.31 skill).

![Jordan Dajani's 28-20 Call Came Closest, Missing by Two Points](/posts/visuals/d2197965-9159-41cd-90df-89ae0240d330.png)

The math shows a field that liked the right side but not the right distance. The median predicted margin across the seven pundits who gave exact scores was 11 points, nearly double what actually happened.

## Which score calls missed the most?

[Richard Sherman](/pundits/richard-sherman) and [Chris Simms](/pundits/chris-simms) tied for the week's widest miss. Sherman called it on air: "So let's go San Francisco– 35, the Commanders, 21." That was a 14-point margin, missing by eight and grading to -9.07 skill. Simms landed on the same 14-point gap with his "31-17" call, also -9.07 skill, after saying on his show: "I hear what you're saying all the way as far as, I got a thirty one seventeen forty niners." Both picked the correct winner; neither came close to how close the game actually was.

## Did this fit how these forecasters usually call games?

For Dajani, Monday's call was a standout rather than business as usual. His score predictions have graded at 59.84% accuracy across 73 calls this season, so his 95.24 reading on the Commanders-49ers line sits well above his typical range. Prisco's record shows the same thing in miniature: his season-long score-prediction accuracy is 56.33% across 119 graded calls, making his 92.86 here one of his sharper outings.

Simms and Sherman's misses look more like their seasons overall than a one-off. Simms' score predictions have averaged -13.11 skill across 54 graded calls this year, so a -9.07 reading here is actually a touch better than his norm. Sherman's score picks have graded at 76.75% accuracy across 28 calls, meaning his 80.95 on this one tracked close to his usual level even though the margin itself was off by eight points.

## What does this result change about the two teams' season-long calls?

San Francisco's winner picks have now graded at 100% accuracy across 60 graded game-outcome calls this season, while Washington's have landed at just 17.9% accuracy across 14 graded calls. That gap was already wide before Monday and didn't get any narrower. For a fuller look at how the two clubs' season-long calls have held up, see the [49ers](/nfl/teams/49ers) and Commanders team pages, and check where this week's pundits sit on the overall [leaderboard](/nfl/leaderboard).