# Patriots 26, Jets 19: Every Score Call Overshot New England's Margin

*Published 2026-10-18 — MissedTakes*

*Drafted by a language model from MissedTakes' graded data, then reviewed and approved by Ben Garves before publishing.*

## How did the pundits split on Jets at Patriots?
Eighteen of the 20 pundits whose latest call counted on this game took the Patriots, and two took the Jets, before New England won 26-19. The group's calls on this game averaged 84 accuracy once graded, but the margin side of the ledger was softer than the winner side: pundits who put a score on it called a median margin of 14 points for New England, twice what the Patriots actually won by.

![Just two pundits took the Jets, and both were wrong](/posts/visuals/16b61473-e912-4cb7-8eb4-8add85a6ad49.png)

Chris Broussard and Ralph Vacchiano were the only two to side with the Jets, and both were wrong. Everyone else, correctly, had the Patriots.

## Which score call came closest to the final margin?
[John Breech](/pundits/john-breech)'s call of "Patriots 30-20 over Jets," filed for CBS Sports on October 13, came closest, missing the final 7-point margin by 3. That was the tightest of four score predictions graded on this game, and it earned Breech a skill score of +16.38, well above his 2026 average of +4.73 across his 107 graded score predictions this season.

| Pundit | Score call | Predicted margin | Missed the final margin by |
|---|---|---:|---:|
| John Breech | Patriots 30-20 | 10 | 3 |
| Tyler Sullivan | Patriots 30-17 | 13 | 6 |
| Pete Prisco | Patriots 28-13 | 15 | 8 |
| Chris Simms | Patriots 34-17 | 17 | 10 |

![All four score calls overstated New England's margin](/posts/visuals/488d8639-99f3-4b4c-bb35-a14eb6d6aac5.png)

[Tyler Sullivan](/pundits/tyler-sullivan)'s 30-17 call (margin of 13) also beat the field, worth +4.10 in skill. [Pete Prisco](/pundits/pete-prisco)'s 28-13 (margin of 15) and [Chris Simms](/pundits/chris-simms)'s 34-17 (margin of 17) both overshot further and scored negative, -4.10 and -12.29. Every one of the four calls had New England winning by more than it actually did.

## Who picked the Patriots and still scored zero skill?
None of the 18 pundits who simply took New England to win picked up any skill credit for it, because the Patriots were already the pick a coin-flip default would make as the home team. [Ethan Hurwitz](/pundits/ethan-hurwitz), [Connor Rogers](/pundits/connor-rogers), [Matt Harmon](/pundits/matt-harmon), [Mike Kadlick](/pundits/mike-kadlick) and a dozen others all graded 100 accuracy and a skill delta of exactly 0 on their winner picks. Getting a divisional road favorite right didn't separate anyone from the baseline; only the pundits who attached a score, or who went against the grain, had anything on the line.

## Who missed the Patriots winning?
Chris Broussard picked the Jets on Fox Sports Radio on October 16, arguing that "[Aaron Glenn] has that defense popping… They sacked Deshaun Watson eight times last week… It's a division game. Anything can happen." The call graded 0 accuracy and cost him -172 in skill. [Ralph Vacchiano](/pundits/ralph-vacchiano) called the Jets' stretch "a very winnable" one that included "at New England" in a September 29 power ranking column, before New England won by 7; that graded 0 accuracy and -183 in skill.

## Does this miss fit a pattern for the two who took the Jets?
For Broussard, yes. His overall record sits at 57.13 accuracy and a -1.74 MissedTakes Score across 32 graded calls, and specifically on game-outcome picks he's at 60 accuracy but a -7.86 score across 25 graded takes, a group his Jets call now joins rather than breaks from. Vacchiano's record is thinner: six graded calls total, still provisional, with his game-outcome picks running 83.33 accuracy across just four takes before this one. A single wrong call carries more weight against a sample that small.

One other voice is worth tracking here. [Rich Eisen](/pundits/rich-eisen) said on September 28 he didn't "see a win" for New England "until week eight," effectively a Jets call that graded 0 accuracy and -189 in skill. By October 14 he'd reversed to picking the Patriots, which graded 100 accuracy and 0 skill once they won. Across his full 2026 slate of 91 graded game-outcome picks, Eisen sits at 61.22 accuracy, so the early call reads as the outlier against his season, not the later one.

## What does this result mean for the season-long calls on these two clubs?
New England's preseason win-total calls ranged from Broussard's 9-8 to Mark Wahlberg's 14-3, with Patrick Claybon at 12-5 and several others clustered near 10 wins; a 4-2 start keeps the double-digit calls in play and squeezes the ones closer to 9. Several pundits, including Tyler Sullivan, Josh Edwards, Garrett Podell, Greg Jennings and Jarvis Landry, picked the Patriots over Buffalo for the AFC East, and this win does nothing to hurt that case. The Jets, at 2-4, are tracking the bearish preseason calls from Nick Wright (4-13), Matt Harmon, Nate Tice and Moe Moton (all 5-12) more than the more optimistic ones.

For the full season arc on both clubs, see the [Patriots](/nfl/teams/patriots) and [Jets](/nfl/teams/jets) team pages, or check where this week's pundits rank overall on the [leaderboard](/nfl/leaderboard).