# Seat Counts — US Elections prediction accuracy

Scored under the published methodology (https://missedtakes.co/methodology), which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.

## The numbers

- **Takes logged:** 52
- **Graded:** 14 (27% settled)
- **Average accuracy:** 80 out of 100
- **Scored 80 or more:** 10; **under 40:** 0
- **Pundits who have made one:** 21

## By season

- 2024: 14 of 21 graded
- 2026: 0 of 31 graded

## Who is good at seat counts

MissedTakes Score for this kind of prediction only — accuracy measured against what a naive guess would have scored; zero means no better than guessing. Ratings this early are samples, not reputations: the confidence tier says how many graded articles sit behind each.

- [Mark Halperin](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mark-halperin): score 81.6, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Isaac Saul](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/isaac-saul): score 80, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Nathan Gonzales](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nathan-gonzales): score 80, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Steve Deace](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/steve-deace): score 60.3, 80 accuracy, 2 graded across 2 articles (provisional)
- [Lakshya Jain](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/lakshya-jain): score 25, 80 accuracy, 4 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Daniel Horowitz](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/daniel-horowitz): score 22.9, 77.5 accuracy, 2 graded across 2 articles (provisional)
- [Erick-Woods Erickson](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/erick-woods-erickson): score -15, 75 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Sam Wang](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/sam-wang): score -35, 55 accuracy, 2 graded across 1 article (provisional)

## By publisher

- [The Megyn Kelly Show](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-megyn-kelly-show): score 81.6, 1 graded (provisional)
- [The Inside Elections Podcast](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-inside-elections-podcast): score 80, 1 graded (provisional)
- [Tangle (podcast)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/tangle-podcast): score 80, 1 graded (provisional)
- [Steve Deace Show](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/steve-deace-show): score 44.63, 4 graded (provisional)
- [Split Ticket](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/split-ticket): score 25, 4 graded (provisional)
- [Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/erick-erickson-newsletter-substack): score -15, 1 graded (provisional)
- [Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/princeton-election-consortium-sam-wang): score -35, 2 graded (provisional)

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Page: https://missedtakes.co/predictions/chamber-seats
The US Elections hub: https://missedtakes.co/elections