# House Popular Vote Margins — US Elections prediction accuracy

Scored under the published methodology (https://missedtakes.co/methodology), which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.

## The numbers

- **Takes logged:** 9
- **Graded:** 4 (44% settled)
- **Average accuracy:** 76.8 out of 100
- **Scored 80 or more:** 2; **under 40:** 0
- **Pundits who have made one:** 6

## By season

- 2022: 3 of 4 graded
- 2024: 1 of 1 graded
- 2026: 0 of 4 graded

## Who is good at house popular vote margins

MissedTakes Score for this kind of prediction only — accuracy measured against what a naive guess would have scored; zero means no better than guessing. Ratings this early are samples, not reputations: the confidence tier says how many graded articles sit behind each.

- [Harrison Lavelle](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/harrison-lavelle): score 50.3, 92.8 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Lakshya Jain](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/lakshya-jain): score 50.3, 92.8 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Ben Shapiro](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/ben-shapiro): score 35.39, 77.2 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [David Nir](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/david-nir): score -54.88, 44.5 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)

## By publisher

- [Split Ticket](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/split-ticket): score 50.3, 2 graded (provisional)
- [The Ben Shapiro Show](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-ben-shapiro-show): score 35.39, 1 graded (provisional)
- [The Downballot (newsletter)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-downballot-newsletter): score -54.88, 1 graded (provisional)

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Page: https://missedtakes.co/predictions/house-popular-vote
The US Elections hub: https://missedtakes.co/elections