# Race Margins — US Elections prediction accuracy

Scored under the published methodology (https://missedtakes.co/methodology), which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.

## The numbers

- **Takes logged:** 47
- **Graded:** 38 (81% settled)
- **Average accuracy:** 77.1 out of 100
- **Scored 80 or more:** 22; **under 40:** 1
- **Pundits who have made one:** 25

## By season

- 2024: 38 of 45 graded
- 2026: 0 of 2 graded

## Who is good at race margins

MissedTakes Score for this kind of prediction only — accuracy measured against what a naive guess would have scored; zero means no better than guessing. Ratings this early are samples, not reputations: the confidence tier says how many graded articles sit behind each.

- [Clay Travis](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/clay-travis): score 98.86, 100 accuracy, 2 graded across 2 articles (provisional)
- [Domenico Montanaro](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/domenico-montanaro): score 38.56, 77.5 accuracy, 2 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Sam Wang](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/sam-wang): score 38, 87.9 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Steve Deace](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/steve-deace): score 32.5, 90.18 accuracy, 6 graded across 5 articles (provisional)
- [Seth Keshel](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/seth-keshel): score 31.5, 89.1 accuracy, 6 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Amber Duke](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/amber-duke): score 30.3, 45 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Henry Olsen](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/henry-olsen): score 28, 85 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Carl Cannon](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/carl-cannon): score 27.63, 91.75 accuracy, 2 graded across 2 articles (provisional)
- [Bob Vander Plaats](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/bob-vander-plaats): score 20.72, 73.95 accuracy, 2 graded across 2 articles (provisional)
- [Jeff Singer](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jeff-singer): score 14.14, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Spencer Kimball](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/spencer-kimball): score 6.54, 87.9 accuracy, 2 graded across 2 articles (provisional)
- [Saagar Enjeti](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/saagar-enjeti): score 2, 59 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Krystal Ball](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/krystal-ball): score 0, 0 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Ryan Grim](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/ryan-grim): score -1, 56 accuracy, 2 graded across 2 articles (provisional)
- [Robby Soave](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/robby-soave): score -1, 56 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Bill Scher](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/bill-scher): score -1.02, 56 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Lakshya Jain](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/lakshya-jain): score -2.09, 69.93 accuracy, 3 graded across 2 articles (provisional)
- [Newt Gingrich](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/newt-gingrich): score -3.9, 71.9 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Tim Miller](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/tim-miller): score -7, 50 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [David Frum](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/david-frum): score -26, 72 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)

## By publisher

- [The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-clay-travis-and-buck-sexton-show): score 98.86, 2 graded (provisional)
- [The NPR Politics Podcast](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-npr-politics-podcast): score 38.56, 2 graded (provisional)
- [Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/princeton-election-consortium-sam-wang): score 38, 1 graded (provisional)
- [Steve Deace Show](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/steve-deace-show): score 32.82, 8 graded (provisional)
- [RealClearPolitics Podcast](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/realclearpolitics-podcast): score 27.63, 2 graded (provisional)
- [Rising (The Hill)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/rising-the-hill): score 14.65, 2 graded (provisional)
- [The Downballot (podcast)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-downballot-podcast): score 14.14, 1 graded (provisional)
- [Newt's World](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/newt-s-world): score 13.8, 7 graded (provisional)
- [The Megyn Kelly Show](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-megyn-kelly-show): score 13.69, 3 graded (provisional)
- [Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/breaking-points-with-krystal-and-saagar): score 0, 4 graded (provisional)
- [Split Ticket](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/split-ticket): score -0.65, 2 graded (provisional)
- [Politics Politics Politics (Justin Robert Young)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/politics-politics-politics-justin-robert-young): score -1.02, 1 graded (provisional)
- [The Bulwark Podcast (feed title: The Bulwark Daily)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-bulwark-podcast-feed-title-the-bulwark-daily): score -10.01, 3 graded (provisional)

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Page: https://missedtakes.co/predictions/race-margin
The US Elections hub: https://missedtakes.co/elections