# Race Winners — US Elections prediction accuracy

Scored under the published methodology (https://missedtakes.co/methodology), which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.

## The numbers

- **Takes logged:** 616
- **Graded:** 466 (76% settled)
- **Average accuracy:** 76 out of 100
- **Scored 80 or more:** 354; **under 40:** 112
- **Pundits who have made one:** 105

## By season

- 2024: 466 of 468 graded
- 2026: 0 of 148 graded

## Who is good at race winners

MissedTakes Score for this kind of prediction only — accuracy measured against what a naive guess would have scored; zero means no better than guessing. Ratings this early are samples, not reputations: the confidence tier says how many graded articles sit behind each.

- [Doug Schoen](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/doug-schoen): score 102, 100 accuracy, 2 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Domenico Montanaro](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/domenico-montanaro): score 102, 100 accuracy, 2 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Douglas Wilson](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/douglas-wilson): score 102, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Ghad Saad](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/ghad-saad): score 102, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [AB Stoddard](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/ab-stoddard): score 102, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Ryan Girdusky](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/ryan-girdusky): score 102, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [David Beard](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/david-beard): score 101, 100 accuracy, 2 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Hugh Hewitt](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/hugh-hewitt): score 101, 100 accuracy, 2 graded across 2 articles (provisional)
- [Stu Burguiere](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/stu-burguiere): score 101, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Wosny Lambre](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/wosny-lambre): score 101, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Stephen L. Miller](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/stephen-l-miller): score 101, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Steve Deace Show](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/steve-deace-show): score 101, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Bill O'Reilly](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/bill-o-reilly): score 101, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Francesca Fiorentini](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/francesca-fiorentini): score 101, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Selena Zito](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/selena-zito): score 101, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Carol Markowitz](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/carol-markowitz): score 101, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Michael Knowles](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/michael-knowles): score 101, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [David Frum](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/david-frum): score 100, 100 accuracy, 2 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Bob Vander Plaats](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/bob-vander-plaats): score 100, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Michael Duncan](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/michael-duncan): score 100, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Elizabeth Stauffer](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/elizabeth-stauffer): score 100, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Mehdi Hasan](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mehdi-hasan): score 100, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Steve Kornacki](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/steve-kornacki): score 100, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Steve Bannon](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/steve-bannon): score 89.22, 100 accuracy, 5 graded across 3 articles (provisional)
- [Brent Buchanan](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/brent-buchanan): score 84.5, 91.67 accuracy, 7 graded across 2 articles (provisional)
- [Buck Sexton](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/buck-sexton): score 84.06, 100 accuracy, 12 graded across 9 articles (provisional)
- [Steve Deace](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/steve-deace): score 83.98, 92.86 accuracy, 18 graded across 7 articles (provisional)
- [Newt Gingrich](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/newt-gingrich): score 83.33, 83.33 accuracy, 5 graded across 2 articles (provisional)
- [Megyn Kelly](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/megyn-kelly): score 82.19, 100 accuracy, 10 graded across 4 articles (provisional)
- [Ben Shapiro](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/ben-shapiro): score 81.65, 86.54 accuracy, 30 graded across 8 articles (provisional)
- [Isaac Saul](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/isaac-saul): score 80.41, 79.63 accuracy, 14 graded across 9 articles (provisional)
- [Daniel Horowitz](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/daniel-horowitz): score 76, 75 accuracy, 3 graded across 2 articles (provisional)
- [Cenk Uygur](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/cenk-uygur): score 75.75, 100 accuracy, 4 graded across 2 articles (provisional)
- [Spencer Kimball](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/spencer-kimball): score 75.38, 75 accuracy, 8 graded across 2 articles (provisional)
- [Clay Travis](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/clay-travis): score 70.55, 98.18 accuracy, 24 graded across 11 articles (limited)
- [Erick-Woods Erickson](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/erick-woods-erickson): score 69.21, 93 accuracy, 24 graded across 10 articles (limited)
- [Scott Rasmussen](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/scott-rasmussen): score 68, 100 accuracy, 3 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Ryan Grim](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/ryan-grim): score 67.33, 66.67 accuracy, 5 graded across 3 articles (provisional)
- [Nate Silver](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nate-silver): score 63.13, 62.5 accuracy, 5 graded across 4 articles (provisional)
- [Tom Bevan](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/tom-bevan): score 51, 100 accuracy, 4 graded across 4 articles (provisional)
- [Sam Wang](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/sam-wang): score 50, 75 accuracy, 8 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Henry Olsen](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/henry-olsen): score 50, 100 accuracy, 2 graded across 2 articles (provisional)
- [David Axelrod](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/david-axelrod): score 50, 100 accuracy, 2 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Michael Cohen](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/michael-cohen): score 50, 100 accuracy, 2 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Saagar Enjeti](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/saagar-enjeti): score 40.89, 76.19 accuracy, 14 graded across 6 articles (provisional)
- [Carl Cannon](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/carl-cannon): score 37.5, 100 accuracy, 10 graded across 4 articles (provisional)
- [Seth Keshel](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/seth-keshel): score 33.33, 100 accuracy, 9 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Emily Jashinsky](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/emily-jashinsky): score 33.33, 33.33 accuracy, 3 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Harrison Lavelle](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/harrison-lavelle): score 33.33, 100 accuracy, 3 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Sean Spicer](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/sean-spicer): score 30.72, 80.56 accuracy, 15 graded across 2 articles (provisional)
- [Robby Soave](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/robby-soave): score 25, 75 accuracy, 7 graded across 2 articles (provisional)
- [Kirk Bado](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/kirk-bado): score 25, 75 accuracy, 4 graded across 2 articles (provisional)
- [Bill Scher](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/bill-scher): score 20.4, 50 accuracy, 10 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Tim Miller](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/tim-miller): score 20.2, 26.67 accuracy, 10 graded across 5 articles (provisional)
- [Josh Holmes](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/josh-holmes): score 20.2, 100 accuracy, 5 graded across 5 articles (provisional)
- [Lakshya Jain](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/lakshya-jain): score 14.88, 41.16 accuracy, 47 graded across 4 articles (provisional)
- [David Pakman](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/david-pakman): score 9.03, 75 accuracy, 15 graded across 6 articles (provisional)
- [Justin Robert Young](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/justin-robert-young): score 7.83, 75 accuracy, 6 graded across 4 articles (provisional)
- [David Nir](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/david-nir): score 0, 100 accuracy, 9 graded across 5 articles (provisional)
- [Nathan Gonzales](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nathan-gonzales): score 0, 91.67 accuracy, 7 graded across 2 articles (provisional)
- [Mike Murphy](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mike-murphy): score 0, 0 accuracy, 4 graded across 3 articles (provisional)
- [Logan Phillips](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/logan-phillips): score 0, 25 accuracy, 3 graded across 2 articles (provisional)
- [Bill Kristol](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/bill-kristol): score 0, 0 accuracy, 2 graded across 2 articles (provisional)
- [Max McCall](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/max-mccall): score 0, 50 accuracy, 2 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Jon Favreau](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jon-favreau): score 0, 100 accuracy, 2 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Simon Rosenberg](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/simon-rosenberg): score 0, 0 accuracy, 2 graded across 2 articles (provisional)
- [Tom LoBianco](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/tom-lobianco): score 0, 0 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [James Carville](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/james-carville): score 0, 0 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Jon Lovett](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jon-lovett): score 0, 0 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [John Heilemann](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/john-heilemann): score 0, 0 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Gabe Fleisher](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/gabe-fleisher): score 0, 0 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Sean Trende](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/sean-trende): score 0, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Lanny Davis](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/lanny-davis): score 0, 0 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [John Ashbrook](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/john-ashbrook): score 0, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Liz Cheney](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/liz-cheney): score 0, 0 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Nomiki Konst](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nomiki-konst): score 0, 0 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Andrew Heaton](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/andrew-heaton): score 0, 0 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [David Shuster](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/david-shuster): score 0, 0 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Mariel Garza](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mariel-garza): score 0, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Dave Weigel](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/dave-weigel): score 0, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Mark McKinnon](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mark-mckinnon): score 0, 0 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Phil Wegman](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/phil-wegman): score 0, 100 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Jacob Rubashkin](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jacob-rubashkin): score -5.29, 67.86 accuracy, 11 graded across 2 articles (provisional)
- [Jeff Singer](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jeff-singer): score -12.62, 87.5 accuracy, 8 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Krystal Ball](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/krystal-ball): score -28.62, 45 accuracy, 15 graded across 4 articles (provisional)
- [Rising (The Hill)](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/rising-the-hill): score -66.67, 0 accuracy, 3 graded across 1 article (provisional)
- [Tommy Vietor](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/tommy-vietor): score -102, 0 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)

## By publisher

- [The NPR Politics Podcast](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-npr-politics-podcast): score 102, 2 graded (provisional)
- [Honestly with Bari Weiss](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/honestly-with-bari-weiss): score 102, 1 graded (provisional)
- [The Dispatch Podcast](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-dispatch-podcast): score 101, 1 graded (provisional)
- [Steve Deace Show](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/steve-deace-show): score 87.94, 27 graded (provisional)
- [The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-clay-travis-and-buck-sexton-show): score 81.63, 40 graded (limited)
- [The Ben Shapiro Show](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-ben-shapiro-show): score 79.53, 37 graded (provisional)
- [Tangle (podcast)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/tangle-podcast): score 74.11, 12 graded (provisional)
- [Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/erick-erickson-newsletter-substack): score 69.21, 24 graded (limited)
- [The Young Turks](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-young-turks): score 63.13, 8 graded (provisional)
- [Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/risky-business-with-nate-silver-and-maria-konnikova): score 63.13, 5 graded (provisional)
- [The Megyn Kelly Show](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-megyn-kelly-show): score 63, 34 graded (provisional)
- [Newt's World](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/newt-s-world): score 61.11, 23 graded (provisional)
- [RealClearPolitics Podcast](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/realclearpolitics-podcast): score 51.59, 19 graded (provisional)
- [Tangle (newsletter)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/tangle-newsletter): score 50.5, 6 graded (provisional)
- [Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/princeton-election-consortium-sam-wang): score 50, 8 graded (provisional)
- [The Downballot (podcast)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-downballot-podcast): score 44.19, 10 graded (provisional)
- [The Bulwark Podcast (feed title: The Bulwark Daily)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-bulwark-podcast-feed-title-the-bulwark-daily): score 40.1, 16 graded (provisional)
- [Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/breaking-points-with-krystal-and-saagar): score 39.47, 42 graded (limited)
- [Ruthless Podcast](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/ruthless-podcast): score 33.58, 8 graded (provisional)
- [Politics Politics Politics (Justin Robert Young)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/politics-politics-politics-justin-robert-young): score 24.13, 24 graded (provisional)
- [Split Ticket](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/split-ticket): score 23.22, 50 graded (provisional)
- [The David Pakman Show](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-david-pakman-show): score 9.03, 15 graded (provisional)
- [The Inside Elections Podcast](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-inside-elections-podcast): score 7.77, 20 graded (provisional)
- [Hacks On Tap](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/hacks-on-tap): score 5.56, 7 graded (provisional)
- [The Downballot (newsletter)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-downballot-newsletter): score 0, 9 graded (provisional)
- [Face the Nation transcripts (CBS News)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/face-the-nation-transcripts-cbs-news): score 0, 1 graded (provisional)
- [Pod Save America](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/pod-save-america): score -0.5, 6 graded (provisional)
- [Rising (The Hill)](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/rising-the-hill): score -2.78, 11 graded (provisional)

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Page: https://missedtakes.co/predictions/race-winner
The US Elections hub: https://missedtakes.co/elections