# Seats Most Likely to Flip — US Elections prediction accuracy

Scored under the published methodology (https://missedtakes.co/methodology), which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.

## The numbers

- **Takes logged:** 2
- **Graded:** 1 (50% settled)
- **Average accuracy:** 89.7 out of 100
- **Scored 80 or more:** 1; **under 40:** 0
- **Pundits who have made one:** 2

## By season

- 2024: 1 of 1 graded
- 2026: 0 of 1 graded

## Who is good at seats most likely to flip

MissedTakes Score for this kind of prediction only — accuracy measured against what a naive guess would have scored; zero means no better than guessing. Ratings this early are samples, not reputations: the confidence tier says how many graded articles sit behind each.

- [Kirk Bado](https://missedtakes.co/pundits/kirk-bado): score 39.67, 89.67 accuracy, 1 graded across 1 article (provisional)

## By publisher

- [The Inside Elections Podcast](https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-inside-elections-podcast): score 39.67, 1 graded (provisional)

---

Page: https://missedtakes.co/predictions/ranked-flips
The US Elections hub: https://missedtakes.co/elections