# Aaron McIntire — prediction record ## Is Aaron McIntire accurate? Across 5 graded calls in 3 articles, Aaron McIntire scores 0% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of -55.33, which means their calls were worse than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard. ## Record - **Accuracy:** 0% - **MissedTakes Score:** -55.33 - **Graded articles:** 3 - **Graded individual calls:** 5 - **Clarity:** 100% - **Hedged:** 37.5% of claims - **Right when hedging:** not enough data - **Right when committing:** not enough data PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards. The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology ## Graded articles (3) ### Oct 23, 2026 — scored 0 across 1 call Asked who wins Michigan's Senate race, McIntyre picked Mike Rogers over Abdul El-Sayed. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/66ba746a-4334-4dfb-b522-54001077fe92 ### Sep 27, 2024 — scored 0 across 1 call McIntyre also picked Kamala Harris to win the presidential election, with a confidence level of about seven out of ten. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/45f78f8b-2192-4331-ac4b-4d3e8c936591 ### Nov 4, 2022 — scored 0 across 3 calls McIntyre called Lee Zeldin's win in New York as the biggest upset of the night, expected Republicans to finish with 54 to 57 Senate seats, and assumed Kari Lake would be governor of Arizona. https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3510a471-8854-4f8a-87bc-704f997621b0 --- We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=aaron-mcintire