# Ari Weitzman — prediction record



## Is Ari Weitzman accurate?

Across 6 graded calls in 2 articles, Ari Weitzman scores 20% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 20.4, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

## Record

- **Accuracy:** 20%
- **MissedTakes Score:** 20.4
- **Graded articles:** 2
- **Graded individual calls:** 6
- **Clarity:** 100%
- **Hedged:** 55% of claims
- **Right when hedging:** not enough data
- **Right when committing:** not enough data

PROVISIONAL: fewer than 10 graded articles. This number is not yet meaningful, and they are excluded from leaderboards.

The MissedTakes Score is how much better than a naive baseline they did, not how often they were right. Zero means no better than a strategy requiring no knowledge. A record is counted in ARTICLES rather than individual calls, because thirty picks in one mock draft is one act of judgment rather than thirty.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

## Graded articles (2)

### Oct 21, 2024 — scored 40 across 5 calls

Weitzman disagreed with Saul on three swing states, saying Democrats probably carry Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada at the presidential level. On the Senate, he treated Republican pickups in West Virginia and Montana as near-certain.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/eddcacdb-978f-4076-befd-e6ff64fa2461

### Oct 6, 2024 — scored 0 across 1 call

Weitzman says he has a gut hunch, despite conventional wisdom favoring Trump there, that Nevada will go for Harris and that the data will come around to it.

https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9c76a2ce-874c-4238-8638-ca563733ec51


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We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=ari-weitzman